Race Narrows to Two-Horse Contest

The Malava constituency by-election has intensified into a direct confrontation between the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and a consolidated opposition, with both sides framing the poll as a critical test of political strength ahead of the 2027 general election. The contest on Thursday, November 27, 2025, pits UDA's David Ndakwa against Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K), who has emerged as the single candidate for the "United Opposition" alliance.

The parliamentary seat fell vacant following the death of the incumbent, Moses Malulu Injendi, on February 17, 2025. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has scheduled the by-election for this Thursday, with the official campaign period concluding on Monday, November 24, 2025.

Conflicting Projections Amid Final Campaign Push

As campaigns entered their final hours, conflicting projections have emerged from the rival camps. On Sunday, November 23, 2025, Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei, a prominent UDA figure, publicly predicted an overwhelming victory for his party's candidate. In a statement on the social media platform X, Cherargei claimed, “Our UDA candidate of Malava constituency, Kakamega County, is winning the 27th November 2025 by-elections by a landslide by 80%.”

However, this forecast starkly contrasts with recent polling data. An opinion poll released by Mizani Africa on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, indicated a tighter race, placing DAP-K's Seth Panyako in the lead with 47.2% of voter preference. The same poll showed UDA's David Ndakwa trailing at 40.3%, with a significant 9.4% of the electorate remaining undecided, suggesting they could be the deciding factor.

High-Profile Endorsements Reshape Race

The final days of the campaign have been marked by significant political realignments. David Ndakwa's bid received a major boost on Sunday, November 23, when Democratic National Alliance (DNA) party candidate Joab Burudi Manyasi withdrew from the race and endorsed the UDA flagbearer. The move, announced by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, was hailed as a strategic consolidation of the pro-government vote. Further bolstering Ndakwa's position, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in Kakamega County had, in a notable cross-alliance move on September 22, 2025, also pledged its support for the UDA candidate, citing a broad-based cooperation agreement with the national government.

On the other side, Seth Panyako, the Secretary-General of the Kenya National Union of Nurses (KNUN), stands as the sole opposition candidate after Edgar Busiega Mwanga of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) stepped down in his favour on October 30, 2025, to avoid splitting the opposition vote. Panyako's campaign has rallied a number of influential regional leaders, including DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. In a complex political twist, Kakamega's own UDA Senator, Dr. Boni Khalwale, has also been actively campaigning for Panyako, signalling fractures within the local UDA chapter.

A Litmus Test for Western Kenya

The Malava by-election is widely seen as more than a local contest; it is a barometer of the current political climate in the crucial Western Kenya voting bloc. The ruling UDA party, led by President William Ruto's key allies like presidential aide Farouk Kibet, has invested significant political capital to capture the seat and demonstrate its growing influence in a region that has historically been an opposition stronghold. UDA campaigners have urged residents to align with the national government to foster development.

For the opposition, a victory for Panyako would be a significant morale booster, demonstrating their ability to consolidate their base and resist the UDA's inroads. The high-stakes nature of the poll has drawn national figures from both sides to Malava, transforming the constituency into a focal point of the emerging political battle lines for 2027.