Nairobi motorists are holding their breath. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) is set to announce the new fuel prices on Tuesday, January 14, and for the first time in months, the math is overwhelmingly in the consumer's favor. Global oil prices have tumbled, the shilling has strengthened, and the "Murban Miracle" is in full effect. But will the government pass the savings to the pump, or will it use the windfall to plug its own fiscal holes?

The Numbers: A Perfect Storm for Lower Prices

The latest data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is unequivocal. The landed cost of Murban crude oil—the benchmark for Kenya’s imports—dropped to $61.00 (KES 7,869) per barrel on Thursday, down from $62.51 a week earlier. This represents a significant slide from the October 2025 highs of over $80 per barrel.

Coupled with the Kenyan Shilling’s appreciation to 128.99 against the US Dollar, the cost of importing refined fuel has fallen by approximately 4.25% for Super Petrol and 3.02% for Diesel. In a purely free market, this should translate to a price drop of at least KES 5 to KES 8 per liter.

The "Stabilization" Trap

However, the free market does not operate at EPRA headquarters. The government is currently grappling with a massive debt owed to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) under the defunct fuel subsidy program. Sources at the Ministry of Energy hint that the state might use the "over-recovery" (the profit made from the lower global price) to pay off these debts rather than lowering the pump price.

"The temptation to keep the price at KES 184.52 and pocket the difference is high," says petroleum analyst Mohamed Wehliye. "The Treasury is broke. They see this price drop not as relief for Wanjiku, but as a lifeline for their own balance sheet."

• The Current Prices: Since December 15, Nairobi motorists have been paying KES 184.52 for Petrol, KES 171.47 for Diesel, and KES 154.78 for Kerosene. These prices include the 16% VAT and the controversial Road Maintenance Levy hike.
• The "Kerosene" Politics: The biggest political headache is Kerosene. With prices rising by 5.52% in landed cost last month, the poor have been hit hardest. If EPRA lowers petrol but hikes kerosene, the "Hustler" government risks a backlash from its core base.
• Inflation Impact: Transport accounts for 9% of Kenya’s inflation basket. A reduction in diesel prices would directly lower the cost of unga (maize flour) and electricity. The Manufacturers Association has warned that maintaining high fuel prices artificially is "economic sabotage."

The Venezuela Factor

Global oil analysts are also watching the geopolitical situation. While prices are low now, President Trump’s recent intervention in Venezuela and threats against Iran could spike volatility. If EPRA anticipates a future price hike, they might keep prices steady now to build a "stabilization buffer."

On Tuesday, Director General Daniel Kiptoo will face the cameras. Will he announce the "New Year Gift" Kenyans are praying for, or will he deliver another lesson in the painful economics of debt repayment? The charts say "down," but the politics might say "hold."