The ghost of Raila Odinga (who would have turned 81 this week) loomed large over Mombasa yesterday, but the spotlight was firmly on the living. Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho transformed a memorial birthday celebration for the late ODM leader into a potent political launchpad, effectively declaring himself the heir to the opposition’s coastal kingdom.

Gathered at the Hassan Joho Foundation grounds in Kilifi, thousands of supporters wearing t-shirts emblazoned with "Baba Forever, Joho Now" turned the event into a coronation. With Raila having passed away in October 2025, the vacuum in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is immense, and Joho is moving fast to fill it.

The "Sultan's" Pitch

Joho, known for his rhetorical flair, eulogized Raila as a "father and mentor" but quickly pivoted to the future. "Baba taught us to be brave. He did not leave us orphans; he left us soldiers," Joho declared. "And a soldier does not retreat; a soldier leads."

• Consolidating the Coast: The event was attended by over 20 MPs and 4 Governors from the Coast region, a show of force designed to signal to Nairobi that the bloc is united behind Joho. Speakers explicitly fronted him as the region's kingpin and the rightful successor to Raila’s national mantle.
• The 2027 Calculus: Joho’s move is a direct challenge to the current ODM faction led by Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and the Nyanza base. By using Raila’s birthday—a day of deep emotional significance—Joho is claiming the moral legitimacy of the succession.
• The "Handshake" Dilemma: As a serving Cabinet Secretary in President Ruto’s government (via the broad-based deal), Joho walks a tightrope. He must maintain his opposition credentials to inherit Raila’s base while serving in the very government that base opposes. His speech carefully balanced praise for Ruto’s development record with a robust defense of ODM’s identity.

A Party at a Crossroads

The memorial highlighted the fragility of ODM post-Raila. Without the towering figure of "Jakom," factions are emerging. Joho has the money and the charisma, but does he have the trust of the Luo Nyanza base? As the cake was cut in absentia, the battle for the soul of Kenya’s oldest opposition party officially began.