The National Assembly Finance Committee has retreated to draft its final report on the controversial sale of a 15% government stake in Safaricom, a deal poised to inject KES 204 billion into the economy but fraught with dividend risks.

The jury is out. The Finance Committee, led by MP Kuria Kimani, has secluded itself to pen the verdict on one of the most significant privatizations in Kenya's history. The proposal: to sell 15% of the state's shareholding in Safaricom to Vodacom/Vodafone. The goal: to raise an immediate KES 204 billion to plug the gaping deficit in the infrastructure budget.

This is not a full exit—the government retains roughly 20%—but it is a massive divestiture. The committee's report will determine whether this cash injection is a prudent realization of assets or a desperate fire sale of the family silver.

The Dividend Dilemma

The clock is ticking, and it is expensive. Experts have warned that if the deal is rushed before the March dividend declaration, the Treasury could lose up to KES 7 billion in payouts that would instead flow to the new owners. The committee is under immense pressure to balance the urgent need for liquidity against the long-term loss of this revenue stream.

• The Deal: Sale of 15% stake to Vodacom Group.
• The Price: KES 34 per share (a premium on the current market price).
• The Proceeds: KES 204 billion earmarked for roads, dams, and energy projects.

Why Vodacom?

Questions linger about why the shares were not offered to the Kenyan public via the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE). The government argues that a strategic sale to an existing partner (Vodacom) attracts a premium price that the depressed retail market could not match. However, this consolidates control in the hands of the South African giant, raising sovereignty concerns about Kenya's most strategic asset.

"We are not selling Safaricom; we are offsetting a stake," MP Kimani has reiterated. But for the investor on the street, the distinction is academic. The government is cashing out, and the report will reveal whether Parliament believes the price is right.