ODM is a party in handcuffs, bound to a coalition it has outgrown by a legal knot tied by its own lawyers.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) finds itself in a bizarre political purgatory. While its heart may be drifting towards a cooperative arrangement with President William Ruto’s government, its body is legally chained to the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition. The "revival" of Azimio, spearheaded by Council Chair Uhuru Kenyatta and the newly ascended Kalonzo Musyoka, has morphed from a vehicle of opposition into a strategic trap for Raila Odinga’s party.

The Legal Straitjacket

The coalition agreement signed in the run-up to 2022 was designed to be ironclad to prevent betrayal. Now, those same clauses are preventing divorce. ODM cannot easily exit Azimio without losing its parliamentary privileges and leadership positions, which are allocated based on the coalition’s collective strength. Leaving would mean forfeiting the Minority leadership and committee chairs—a price the party’s MPs are unwilling to pay.

Uhuru Kenyatta’s recent moves to reshuffle the leadership, installing Kalonzo as the de facto opposition chief, have boxed ODM in further. By asserting the coalition’s continued existence and vibrancy, Uhuru is effectively daring ODM to leave and lose everything, or stay and submit to the collective discipline.

• The Affiliate Rebellion: Smaller parties within Azimio are revolting against the leadership changes, terming them "null and void." This chaos actually serves the trap; as long as the coalition is mired in internal disputes, no clear exit path exists for ODM.
• The Ruto Dilemma: President Ruto needs ODM’s support to stabilize his government, but he cannot formally absorb them as long as they are legally married to Azimio. It is a stalemate that leaves the country with a government-in-waiting that cannot govern and an opposition that opposes itself.
• Kalonzo’s Gambit: For Kalonzo Musyoka, keeping ODM trapped in Azimio is a survival strategy. Without ODM’s numbers, his claim to the opposition throne collapses. He needs them inside the tent, even if they are setting it on fire.

A Marriage of Inconvenience

The situation is untenable. We are witnessing the slow-motion disintegration of Kenya’s grandest political experiment. Azimio has become a zombie coalition—dead in spirit but legally alive. ODM is thrashing against the bars, but the lock holds firm.

Politics is the art of the possible, but right now, ODM is discovering the limits of the legal. Unless they can negotiate a political settlement with Uhuru—the silent kingmaker still pulling the strings—they will remain prisoners of the document they signed in the heady days of 2022.