As Ugandans queue to vote, the elephant in the room is not just who wins today, but what happens tomorrow. For the first time, the election is being fought under the heavy shadow of the "Muhoozi Project"—the alleged plan by President Yoweri Museveni to hand power to his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

Museveni, 81, is officially the candidate, but insiders say this election is a referendum on his dynasty. The rise of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), a political pressure group led by Muhoozi, has created friction within the ruling NRM party. Old-guard generals and bush-war veterans feel sidelined by the "first son’s" aggressive posturing on social media and his unauthorized diplomatic forays.

A House Divided?

"The NRM is no longer a monolith," explains a political analyst in Kampala. "There is the Museveni faction, which wants stability, and the Muhoozi faction, which wants a generational takeover. Today, they are united against Bobi Wine, but the cracks are visible."

The opposition has seized on this narrative, framing the election as a fight against a monarchy. Bobi Wine has told voters that a vote for Museveni is essentially a vote for Muhoozi. "They treat Uganda like their personal estate," Wine declared at his final rally. "We are citizens, not subjects."

• The Military Factor: Muhoozi serves as the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), placing the army squarely at the center of the succession debate. His supporters argue he ensures continuity; his detractors see a creeping military coup.
• Regional Impact: Leaders in Kenya and Rwanda are watching closely. Muhoozi has had erratic Twitter spats with Nairobi in the past, and his ascendancy introduces a wildcard into East African diplomacy. A stable succession is preferred, but a dynastic one makes neighbors nervous.

The Last Dance?

Many believe this will be Museveni’s final term. The constitution has been amended before to accommodate him, but biology is undefeated. Whether he secures a clear mandate today or forces a runoff, the real political drama in Uganda will begin the moment the polls close: the beginning of the end of the Museveni era, and the uncertain dawn of the Muhoozi age.