A birthday cake in Mombasa has become the centerpiece of a high-stakes political chess game. Mining CS Hassan Joho turned Raila Odinga’s 81st birthday celebration into a show of force, rallying the coastal base behind his ambition to inherit the ODM throne.

While the event was officially to honor "Baba," insiders say the real agenda was succession. With Raila preparing for his AU Chairmanship role, the vacuum at the top of ODM is palpable. Joho, the flamboyant former governor, used the platform to remind the party faithful that he has been loyal "in the trenches."

The "Sultan's" Strategy

"We celebrated Baba, but we also counted our numbers," a Joho ally confided. The event was attended by key coastal MPs who pledged their allegiance to Joho as the region's kingpin.

• The Message: Joho is positioning himself as the defender of devolution and the only leader with the financial muscle to keep ODM afloat. By hosting Raila, he signaled that he has the old man's blessing—or at least his ear.
• The Rivals: The move is a direct challenge to the Nairobi-Nyanza axis led by Edwin Sifuna and Opiyo Wandayi. They view Joho as a "part-time" politician. Joho’s camp retorts that they bring the votes and the resources.
• 2027 Calculus: If Joho secures the ODM leadership, it complicates President Ruto’s coastal strategy. A strong Joho means a hostile Mombasa for the UDA machine.

The Party is Over, The War Begins

The cake has been eaten, but the political knives are out. As Raila steps onto the continental stage, the battle for the soul of the Orange party has officially moved to the beach.