Widespread Violence Erupts After Disputed Poll

NAIROBI – Tanzania is grappling with a severe political crisis following the general election held on Wednesday, 29 October 2025, which has been marred by widespread violence, allegations of mass killings, and a near-total internet shutdown. On Friday, 31 October 2025, Tanzania's leading opposition party, Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), claimed that approximately 700 people have been killed in clashes with security forces since the vote. While these figures remain unverified, the United Nations has acknowledged receiving credible reports of at least 10 fatalities and has called for an impartial investigation into the excessive use of force. The unrest was triggered by an election that saw incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party win a landslide victory after her main challengers were disqualified or imprisoned.

Tanzania's National Electoral Commission (NEC) declared President Hassan the winner with a commanding share of the vote, a result the opposition has rejected as fraudulent. The election process was heavily criticized by rights groups even before polling day, citing a pattern of arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances, and a crackdown on dissent. Key opposition figures, including CHADEMA's leader Tundu Lissu, were arrested months prior to the election, with Lissu facing treason charges. His party, along with the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT-Wazalendo), was ultimately barred from participating, effectively removing any significant challenge to the CCM's decades-long hold on power. In response to the results, violent protests erupted in major cities like Dar es Salaam and Mwanza, with demonstrators setting buildings ablaze and clashing with security forces who deployed tear gas and live ammunition. The government imposed a nationwide curfew and the military was deployed to enforce order.

Spillover Effects Felt Directly in Kenya

The turmoil has had immediate cross-border consequences, particularly at the Namanga One-Stop Border Post. Protesters fleeing crackdowns in Tanzania crossed into Kenya, prompting Tanzanian police to fire tear gas canisters across the border, disrupting business and daily life on the Kenyan side. The internet blackout imposed by Tanzanian authorities has also affected Kenyan businesses and communication in the border town. In response, Kenya's Interior Principal Secretary, Raymond Omollo, announced on Thursday, 30 October 2025, that security has been heightened along all border points, including Namanga, Taveta, Isebania, and Lunga Lunga, to prevent a spillover of violence. Omollo urged traders and residents to cooperate with security agencies while emphasizing that the political situation in Tanzania is an internal matter.

Urgent Lessons for Kenya's Democracy

The crisis in Tanzania presents a series of critical lessons for Kenya, particularly concerning the institutions that safeguard democracy.

• Electoral Commission Independence: Analysts point to the perceived lack of independence of Tanzania's National Electoral Commission as a core cause of the crisis. The Tanzanian constitution grants the president sweeping powers to appoint and dismiss electoral commissioners, a structure that critics argue compromises the body's impartiality and favors the ruling party. This stands in contrast to Kenya's more complex, multi-stakeholder process for appointing commissioners to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), yet serves as a reminder of the perpetual need to guard the IEBC's operational and financial autonomy against political interference.
• Judicial Redress and Constitutional Safeguards: A key difference highlighted by the crisis is the role of the judiciary. In Tanzania, the law prevents presidential election results from being challenged in court once declared by the NEC. This lack of judicial recourse leaves the opposition with few options beyond street protests. Kenya's constitutional framework, which allows for presidential petitions to be heard and determined by the Supreme Court, is a crucial democratic safety valve that has been tested in multiple election cycles.
• Shrinking Civic Space: The systematic disqualification, arrest, and harassment of opposition figures in Tanzania is a stark illustration of shrinking democratic and civic space. Human rights organizations in Kenya have condemned the events, warning that such patterns of repression pose a threat to the entire East African region's stability. The Kenya Human Rights Network issued a statement emphasizing that "injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere" and criticized the African Union and the East African Community (EAC) for their perceived silence.

Regional Implications and Observer Missions

The East African Community (EAC) deployed a 67-member Election Observation Mission, led by former Ugandan Vice President Dr. Speciosa Kazibwe, on 24 October 2025, stating its commitment to credible elections as a cornerstone of regional integration. The African Union also sent a 72-person mission. However, with no credible international observers allowed and some Western nations withdrawing participation, the legitimacy of the vote was questioned internationally before it began. The fallout threatens to impact regional trade and cooperation, with Kenyan businesses operating in Tanzania adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach amid the instability. The crisis serves as a sobering test for the EAC's principles of good governance and democracy, as enshrined in its treaty, and a powerful cautionary tale for Kenya as it navigates its own complex political landscape.