DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA – Hundreds of people are feared dead following a violent crackdown by security forces on widespread protests that erupted after Tanzania's disputed general election on Wednesday, October 29, 2025. The main opposition party, Chadema, reported on Friday, October 31, that as many as 700 people have been killed nationwide. [2, 11, 14] A spokesperson for the party, John Kitoka, told news agencies they had compiled figures from health workers, estimating 350 deaths in the commercial capital Dar es Salaam and over 200 in Mwanza. [10, 11, 31]

These numbers remain unconfirmed by the government of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, which has largely remained silent on the casualties. [11, 12] However, diplomatic and security sources speaking anonymously to AFP indicated they were receiving reports of between 500 and 800 fatalities across the country. [11, 28] The United Nations Human Rights Office stated on Friday it had received credible reports of at least 10 deaths and urged security forces to refrain from using disproportionate force. [10, 20, 24] Amnesty International reported receiving information of at least 100 killed. [2, 11, 23]

The crisis was ignited by an election that observers and opposition figures have widely condemned as a sham, designed to entrench the power of President Hassan and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. [21, 22] The country's main opposition party, Chadema, was barred from participating in the election. [21, 26] Its leader, Tundu Lissu, has been detained since April 2025 on treason charges. [22, 26, 29] Another potential challenger, Luhaga Mpina of the ACT-Wazalendo party, was also disqualified. [21, 25, 27]

An Information Blackout

Verification of events has been severely hampered by a near-total internet shutdown imposed since the morning of the election on Wednesday, October 29. [8, 9, 15] Digital monitoring group NetBlocks confirmed the nationwide disruption, which has blocked social media and messaging platforms, plunging the country into an information vacuum. [15, 17] This blackout is seen by rights groups as a deliberate attempt to suppress dissent and control the narrative around the election and its violent aftermath. [8, 19] The only official statement from the security apparatus came from the Chief of Defence Forces, General Jacob John Mkunda, who on Thursday, October 30, described the protesters as "criminals". [11, 23, 29]

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The escalating instability in Tanzania, a key member of the East African Community (EAC), presents a significant security and economic challenge for the region, particularly Kenya. On Thursday, October 30, the violence spilled across the border when Tanzanian police reportedly fired at protesters on the Kenyan side of the Namanga One-Stop Border Post, killing two Tanzanian nationals. [10, 31, 33] The incident paralyzed the crucial trade artery for hours. [33]

Nairobi now faces a delicate diplomatic situation. The Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC), alongside other international rights groups, has called on the EAC and the African Union to reject any election that fails to meet democratic standards. [30] "Kenya cannot remain silent while our neighbour slides into authoritarianism," stated KHRC Executive Director Davis Malombe on Friday, October 31. [30] Protracted unrest in Tanzania could disrupt regional supply chains, impact the vital tourism sector, and potentially trigger a refugee crisis. [19, 33]

International Condemnation

The international community has begun to respond to the escalating violence. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern on Friday, October 31, calling for impartial investigations into all allegations of excessive force and human rights violations. [16, 18] A joint statement from the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, Canada, and Norway also expressed deep concern over the credible reports of a large number of fatalities and urged Tanzanian authorities to act with maximum restraint. [13] Senior Members of the European Parliament have declared that the election "cannot be regarded as free and fair," citing an atmosphere of repression and intimidation. [20, 34] As the official results, which are expected to confirm a landslide for President Hassan, loom, the potential for further escalation remains high, posing a severe test for Tanzania's democracy and the stability of the wider East African region.