Disputed Election Ignites Widespread Unrest

A severe political crisis is unfolding in Tanzania following the general election held on Wednesday, 29 October 2025, which has been marred by deadly violence, widespread destruction of property, and a near-total internet shutdown. On Saturday, 1 November 2025, the country’s National Electoral Commission (NEC) declared incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party the winner with a landslide 97.66% of the vote. The result was immediately rejected by the main opposition party, Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), which described the announcement as an “open coup” against the will of the people.

The election was preceded by a tense political environment, with leading opposition figures, including CHADEMA’s leader Tundu Lissu and Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo, being jailed or disqualified from the race. This exclusion of viable challengers fueled public anger, leading to mass protests in major cities including Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Mwanza even before the final results were announced. Demonstrators have clashed violently with security forces, setting fire to government buildings and tearing down campaign posters of President Hassan. In response, the Tanzanian government has imposed a nationwide curfew, restricted internet access, and deployed the military to quell the unrest.

Conflicting Reports on Casualties

The human cost of the crackdown remains highly contested. On Friday, 31 October 2025, CHADEMA officials claimed that as many as 700 to 800 people had been killed by security forces since the protests began. The party stated its figures were compiled by members visiting hospitals and morgues. However, the Tanzanian government has dismissed these numbers as “hugely exaggerated” and has not released any official casualty figures. International bodies have been unable to verify the opposition's claims due to the internet blackout and restrictions on journalists. The United Nations Human Rights Office stated on Friday, 31 October 2025, that it had received credible reports of at least 10 deaths in three cities and called for an impartial investigation into the “excessive use of force” by security personnel. Amnesty International also reported receiving information that at least 100 people had been killed.

President-elect Hassan is scheduled to be sworn into office on Monday, 3 November 2025, in the capital, Dodoma. According to government announcements, the ceremony will be a private, military-attended event without public access, broadcast live on state television.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The instability in Tanzania has had immediate and direct consequences for Kenya. On Thursday, 30 October 2025, violent protests erupted at the Namanga One-Stop Border Post, a critical transit point for goods and people between the two nations. Demonstrators on the Tanzanian side barricaded roads and lit bonfires, paralysing cross-border trade and travel for hours. The unrest reportedly spilled over, with Tanzanian police firing tear gas canisters into Kenyan territory as protesters sought refuge. Some reports indicated that Kenyans were among those injured in the border skirmishes.

In response to the escalating situation, Kenya’s Interior Principal Secretary, Raymond Omollo, announced on Thursday that security had been significantly heightened along all border points, including Namanga, Taveta, Isebania, and Lunga Lunga, to prevent a spillover of violence. Kenyan authorities were seen blocking youths from crossing into Tanzania to join the protests.

The crisis has also created significant economic disruption. The closure of the Port of Dar es Salaam due to the unrest has forced a diversion of cargo to Kenya's Port of Mombasa, placing strain on its capacity and threatening to increase transport costs for landlocked countries like Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. The internet blackout in Tanzania has further hampered communication and trade for businesses operating in Kenyan border towns.

Regional and International Response

Regional bodies have called for calm and dialogue. The African Union (AU), the East African Community (EAC), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have all issued statements expressing concern over the loss of life and urging restraint from all parties. President William Ruto, who is the current chairman of the EAC, has reportedly been in contact with President Hassan, though the details of their discussions have not been made public.

Within Kenya, opposition figures and human rights groups have condemned the violence and questioned the silence from the Kenyan government. On Sunday, 2 November 2025, politicians including Martha Karua and former Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana called for the election results to be cancelled and urged the international community to investigate the killings. The Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC) issued a joint statement with the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), demanding that the AU and EAC refuse to recognize an election that fails to meet democratic standards. They warned that the repression in Tanzania poses a threat to the stability of the entire East African region.