Election Results Imminent Amidst Deepening Crisis

Tanzania’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is expected to announce the final results of the country's presidential election on Saturday, November 1, 2025, EAT. The announcement comes after the nation's general election held on Wednesday, October 29, which saw incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the long-ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party run against a field of lesser-known candidates from minor parties. Preliminary results broadcast by the state-run TBC showed President Hassan with a commanding lead. One report from state news agency Xinhua on Saturday declared she had won with 97.66 percent of the vote, though this awaits final, comprehensive confirmation from the electoral body.

The election was held in a climate of intense political repression, following the disqualification of the main opposition contenders. In April 2025, the leading opposition party, CHADEMA, was barred from participating after it refused to sign an electoral code of conduct, insisting on constitutional and electoral reforms first. Its leader, Tundu Lissu, was arrested and charged with treason. The presidential candidate for the second-largest opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, Luhaga Mpina, was also disqualified from the race.

Widespread Protests and Allegations of Brutality

The days following the vote have been engulfed by violent demonstrations and a severe government crackdown. Protests erupted in major cities, including Dar es Salaam, on election day and have continued since. In response, authorities imposed an internet blackout across the country and a curfew in the commercial capital, deploying the military to enforce it. Reports from the ground describe scenes of chaos, with protesters burning tires and vandalizing property.

There are starkly conflicting reports on the number of casualties. On Friday, October 31, CHADEMA claimed that around 700 people had been killed in clashes with security forces since the election. A security source who spoke to AFP suggested a figure between 500 and 800 nationwide. The United Nations Human Rights Office stated it had received credible reports of at least 10 deaths and called for an impartial investigation into all allegations of excessive force. Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Thabit Kombo, in a statement to Reuters on Friday, acknowledged the unrest but dismissed the opposition's casualty figures as “hugely exaggerated,” stating the government had not yet tabulated the numbers and denying that security forces used excessive force.

Implications for Kenya and East African Stability

The instability has now directly impacted Kenya. On Thursday, October 30, violent confrontations between protesters and Tanzanian security forces spilled over to the Namanga One-Stop Border Post, a critical hub for commerce between the two nations. Reports confirmed fatalities at the border and significant disruption to trade and movement, creating a direct security and economic concern for Nairobi.

The crisis in Tanzania, a key member of the East African Community (EAC), poses a significant threat to regional stability. Protracted unrest could disrupt vital supply chains, harm the tourism sector—a cornerstone for both economies—and potentially trigger a refugee crisis. The situation presents a delicate diplomatic challenge for Kenya's government, which currently holds the chair of the EAC. Opposition figures in Tanzania have explicitly called on Kenyan President William Ruto to intervene and provide regional leadership to de-escalate the crisis.

International bodies and foreign governments, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Norway, have expressed grave concern over the violence and repression. While the EAC and the African Union (AU) deployed observer missions, their substantive reports on the election's fairness are still pending, and some watchdog groups had already raised alarms about the absence of other credible international observers. The unfolding events will test the EAC's commitment to its founding principles of good governance and democracy as a key partner descends into turmoil.