A High-Stakes Contest in Tana River

Voters in Chewani Ward, Tana River County, are heading to the polls on Thursday, 27th November 2025, in a by-election that has morphed from a local contest into a significant political barometer for the region. The election, triggered by the death of the former Member of County Assembly (MCA), Hamisi Idd of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), has attracted a crowded field of 16 candidates. However, the race is widely seen as a three-way contest between UDA's Sophia Hamadawa Maro, the Orange Democratic Movement's (ODM) Salim Arbicho, and Fredrick Bahola of the Federal Party of Kenya (FPK).

Proxy War and Family Politics

The by-election is less about the individual candidates and more a test of political dominance between Tana River Governor Dhadho Godhana (ODM) and Senator Danson Mungatana (UDA), who are anticipated to face off for the Senate seat in 2027. Senator Mungatana is leading the campaign for the UDA candidate, Ms. Maro, who is the sister of the late MCA, leveraging a potential sympathy vote. In a strategic countermove, Governor Godhana is reportedly backing Mr. Bahola, who is Ms. Maro's brother. Political analysts suggest this is a calculated move to neutralize the sympathy factor by splitting the family's vote, which could ultimately benefit the ODM candidate, Salim Arbicho. Mr. Arbicho is a seasoned politician, having previously served as an MCA in the first Tana River County Assembly.

The Decisive Final 48 Hours

As the official campaign period, mandated by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to run from 7:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. daily, concluded on Monday, 24th November 2025, the real contest has shifted into less visible, nocturnal activities. According to a report by the Nation Media Group on 27th November 2025, the final 48 hours in Chewani elections are notoriously decisive. This period is characterized by candidates abandoning large rallies for intensive door-to-door campaigns, where community elders play a pivotal role in final endorsements and narratives can shift rapidly. These late-stage campaigns often involve direct financial persuasion, with reports of households being offered between KSh 100 and KSh 200 to listen to a candidate's pitch. These claims are contextualized by broader, national-level accusations from opposition figures. On 20th November 2025, Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka alleged that the ruling coalition planned to offer voters up to KSh 5,000 to photograph their marked ballots as proof of their vote in the various by-elections. The IEBC has been urged to address these concerns to ensure a credible process.

Local Issues and Ethnic Dynamics

For the residents of Chewani, the election is a matter of pressing local concerns. The ward, situated in Galole Constituency along the River Tana, is dominated by communities reliant on marginal mixed farming and pastoralism. A 2023 Participatory Climate Risk Assessment report by the Tana River County Government identified drought as the primary climate hazard in Chewani, severely impacting livestock and crops and exacerbating poverty. Access to water, infrastructure development, and management of resource-based conflicts are therefore central issues for the electorate. Tana River County has a history of conflict between the farming Pokomo community and the pastoralist Orma and Wardei communities over land and water resources, which often intensifies around election periods. While specific clan endorsements for the Chewani race have not been publicly detailed, the underlying ethnic and clan-based political calculations are understood to be a powerful undercurrent shaping voter decisions and alliances. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED.

National Implications and IEBC's Test

The Chewani contest is one of 24 by-elections taking place on the same day across Kenya, serving as a litmus test for the new IEBC, chaired by Erastus Ethekon, and its preparedness for the 2027 General Election. The outcomes will offer insights into the current political landscape, measuring the strength of President William Ruto's UDA-led government against a re-organizing opposition. The IEBC has confirmed its logistical readiness, having received and dispatched ballot papers, and has assured the public of heightened security measures to ensure a peaceful process. The by-election's result will not only determine local leadership in Chewani but will also have wider reverberations, recalibrating political strategies in Tana River and beyond as the country moves towards the next election cycle.