Official Results Amidst Deep Controversy

Tanzania's National Electoral Commission (NEC) on Saturday, November 1, 2025, declared incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan the winner of the October 29 general election with 97.66% of the vote. The commission reported that Hassan, of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, garnered 31,913,866 out of 32,678,844 total votes cast. The total number of registered voters was 37,647,235, indicating a high voter turnout of approximately 86.8%.

However, the landslide victory was immediately overshadowed by widespread condemnation of the electoral process, which was marred by the systematic exclusion of major opposition figures, deadly protests, and a nationwide internet shutdown. The lead-up to the election saw the disqualification of the main opposition party, Chadema, and the arrest of its leader, Tundu Lissu, on treason charges in April 2025. The presidential candidate for the second-largest opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, was also barred from contesting, leaving President Hassan with no significant challengers.

Widespread Unrest and Fatalities

The announcement of the results followed days of violent clashes between protesters and security forces across Tanzania. On Wednesday, October 29, as polls opened, the government initiated a near-total internet blackout, severely disrupting communication and information flow. Authorities also imposed a nationwide curfew as demonstrations erupted in major cities including Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Mwanza. Opposition party Chadema claimed on Friday, October 31, that around 700 people had been killed in the unrest since election day. While these figures remain unconfirmed by independent sources, the United Nations confirmed it had received "credible reports" of at least 10 fatalities. The Tanzanian government has not released official casualty figures, with the army chief referring to protesters as "criminals."

Spillover into Kenya and Regional Implications

The instability has had direct and fatal consequences for Kenya. On Thursday, October 30, protests at the Namanga One-Stop Border Post turned deadly. According to Kenyan police, at least two Tanzanian nationals were shot and killed by Tanzanian security forces who fired across the border at protesters who had fled into Kenya. The clashes paralysed trade and movement at the critical border crossing. In response, the Kenyan government has increased security along its border points, including Namanga, Taveta, and Isebania. Kenya's Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign & Diaspora Affairs, Musalia Mudavadi, issued a statement on October 31 urging Kenyans to respect Tanzania's sovereignty and laws, and warning them against attempts to join the protests. Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo also cautioned Kenyans against unlawful demonstrations, emphasizing the need to maintain regional stability.

The crisis presents a significant diplomatic and economic challenge for Nairobi. Tanzania is a key trading partner within the East African Community (EAC), and prolonged instability could severely disrupt regional supply chains and impact investor confidence. The violence and the nature of the election have put the EAC's principles of democratic governance under intense scrutiny.

International Condemnation and Observer Silence

The election has drawn sharp criticism from Western governments and human rights organizations. A joint statement from the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, Canada, and Norway on October 31 expressed deep concern over the post-election violence and credible reports of fatalities. Members of the European Parliament declared the election “neither free nor fair,” citing an “atmosphere of repression, intimidation, and fear.” The United States has also voiced alarm over the situation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for a thorough and impartial investigation into all allegations of excessive use of force and human rights violations.

Despite the gravity of the situation, preliminary statements from the official African observer missions deployed by the East African Community (EAC), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the African Union (AU) were not publicly available as of Saturday, November 1. The missions, led by prominent African leaders including former Ugandan Vice President Dr. Speciosa Kazibwe (EAC) and former Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi (AU), were expected to release their initial findings shortly after the polls. Their assessment is highly anticipated and considered critical in shaping the continent's collective response to the contentious election and its violent aftermath. The silence from these key regional bodies leaves a significant void in the official oversight of an election whose legitimacy is being questioned globally.