NAIROBI, Kenya – Friday, 7 November 2025, 6:30 AM (EAT) – Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced on Thursday it has accepted a three-month humanitarian ceasefire proposed by a quartet of international mediators, even as it faces a torrent of accusations of committing ethnically motivated mass killings and other war crimes in the captured city of El Fasher. [4, 5] The unilateral declaration was met with immediate defiance from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), whose leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, vowed to continue fighting, dimming hopes for a reprieve in a conflict that has created the world's largest displacement crisis and poses a significant threat to stability in East Africa. [15, 21]

The ceasefire proposal was put forward by the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt—a group known as the Quad. [7] In a statement released on Thursday, 6 November 2025, the RSF said it agreed to the truce “to address the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of the war and to enhance the protection of civilians.” [15] However, the timing of the announcement has drawn considerable suspicion, coming just days after the RSF consolidated control over El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, on 26 October 2025, after an 18-month siege. [5, 24] Following the city's fall, harrowing reports have emerged from survivors and international observers of summary executions, widespread sexual violence, and targeted killings of civilians. [33, 39] Researchers at Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab reported on Thursday that satellite imagery revealed activity “consistent with mass graves” in El Fasher. [15, 24]

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

The protracted war, which began in April 2023, has profound and escalating consequences for Kenya and the wider region. [6, 24] The conflict has triggered a massive humanitarian catastrophe, forcing nearly 12 million people from their homes. [26] Of these, over 4.2 million have fled into neighbouring countries, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Chad, placing immense strain on already fragile states. [26] While direct figures for Sudanese refugees arriving in Kenya since the conflict's start are part of broader regional statistics, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) confirms a steady influx of new arrivals from the region straining resources in camps like Dadaab and Kakuma. [37, 40]

Kenya, a key member of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. [8] IGAD has repeatedly called for a Sudanese-led peace process and a transition to civilian rule, efforts which now run parallel to those of the Quad. [31] The instability in Sudan fuels regional insecurity, risking the proliferation of weapons and creating a vacuum that could be exploited by extremist groups. It also disrupts vital trade routes and creates economic shocks that reverberate across East Africa.

A Diplomatic Quagmire and Contested Motives

The RSF's acceptance of the ceasefire is viewed by many analysts as a strategic move to deflect international condemnation of the atrocities in El Fasher and to consolidate its significant territorial gains. [4] The SAF-aligned government has indicated it will not accept a truce without the complete withdrawal of the RSF from cities and civilian areas. [5, 24] On Thursday, General al-Burhan delivered a televised address stating his forces were “striving for the defeat of the enemy.” [15]

The role of external actors further complicates the path to peace. The United Arab Emirates, a member of the mediating Quad, has been repeatedly accused of providing weapons and financial support to the RSF, in violation of a UN arms embargo—a charge the UAE consistently denies. [12, 25, 30] Reports from the UN Panel of Experts on Sudan have detailed cargo flights from the UAE to Chad, allegedly carrying arms for the paramilitary group. [16, 30] This dual role as both mediator and alleged backer of one of the belligerents has raised serious questions about the viability and impartiality of the current peace track.

Humanitarian Catastrophe Deepens

Regardless of the political maneuvering, the humanitarian situation on the ground is apocalyptic. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that nearly two-thirds of Sudan's population requires aid. [21] A recent UN-backed food security analysis confirmed that famine is already underway in parts of Darfur and Kordofan, with millions on the brink of starvation. [32] The fall of El Fasher has severed a critical hub for humanitarian aid, leaving countless civilians trapped and cut off from life-saving assistance. [32] The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported on 5 November 2025, that nearly 82,000 people had fled El Fasher and its surroundings since late October, with many recounting horrific violence during their escape. [39] With the 2025 humanitarian response plan for Sudan only 28% funded, aid agencies warn that a complete collapse of their operations is imminent without a massive and immediate injection of funds and, crucially, safe and unhindered access to those in need. [28, 32]