Policy-Reality Mismatch

Kenya's ambitious Affordable Housing Programme (AHP), a cornerstone of the government's economic agenda, is facing mounting criticism for a fundamental disconnect between its stated goals and the reality of its outcomes. While intended to address a national housing deficit of over two million units, the programme is predominantly delivering studio and one-bedroom apartments. These units, critics argue, are ill-suited for the average Kenyan family and remain unaffordable for the low-income earners they are meant to serve, despite being funded by a compulsory 1.5% levy on the gross salaries of all employed Kenyans.

The Numbers: Unit Size vs. Family Size

An analysis of the AHP reveals a significant focus on smaller dwellings. Projects under the "Social Housing" tier, targeting those earning under KSh 20,000 monthly, consist of one-room units of 20 square metres and two-room units of 30 square metres. The "Affordable Housing" tier, for those earning between KSh 20,000 and KSh 149,000, primarily offers studios and one-to-two-bedroom apartments ranging from 20 to 64 square metres. For instance, the flagship Park Road project in Nairobi, with 1,370 units, is a key example of this model.

This structural focus clashes with demographic data. According to the 2019 census data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the average household size in Kenya is 3.9 persons. In urban centres like Nairobi, where the housing crisis is most acute, the average household size is 3.8. This suggests a typical family requires at least two or three bedrooms, rendering the studio and one-bedroom units being prioritized by the state largely impractical for family life.

The Affordability Hurdle

Beyond the issue of size, the question of genuine affordability remains a major challenge. The government defines "low income" as earning below KSh 50,000 per month. However, a World Bank report highlighted that three-quarters of formally employed Kenyans earn below this threshold, effectively pricing them out of traditional mortgage products.

Under the AHP, a studio apartment in the "affordable" category can cost around KSh 1 million, requiring monthly repayments of approximately KSh 7,250. A two-bedroom unit costs upwards of KSh 2 million. To qualify, applicants must raise a deposit of at least 10-12.5% of the unit's value. For a KSh 2 million home, this amounts to a KSh 200,000 down payment—a prohibitive sum for individuals earning less than KSh 50,000 monthly while contending with inflation and other statutory deductions. Critics argue that the programme, in its current form, primarily serves lower-middle-income earners rather than the most vulnerable households who constitute the bulk of the housing deficit.

Funding and Implementation Concerns

The programme is financed by the Affordable Housing Levy, which became law under the Affordable Housing Act of 2024. As of the 2024/2025 fiscal year, the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) confirmed collecting KSh 73.2 billion, surpassing its target by KSh 10 billion. Despite these substantial collections, the pace of construction and unit delivery has been slow. Reports indicate that as of late 2025, a significant portion of the collected funds remained unspent and invested in government securities like Treasury bills, raising concerns about implementation capacity and the urgency of project rollouts. The government has a stated goal of delivering 250,000 units annually, but as of the 2023/24 financial year, only 40,000 units had been delivered, representing just 16% of the target.

Official Response and Broader Context

The State Department for Housing and Urban Development maintains that the programme is on course. Officials state the AHP is not only about housing but also about job creation, aiming to create 3-5 direct jobs per unit built and stimulating local manufacturing. The government's strategy appears to be maximizing the number of units built on available public land, which may explain the preference for smaller, high-density apartment blocks. However, urban planning experts warn this approach risks creating "vertical slums" if not supported by adequate investment in social amenities like schools, healthcare, water, and transport infrastructure.

While the goal of closing Kenya's severe housing gap—estimated at 2 million units and growing by 200,000 annually—is widely supported, the current implementation of the Affordable Housing Programme raises critical questions. Without a strategic shift to align unit sizes with family needs and ensure financial models are accessible to the lowest-income earners, the programme risks becoming a regressive tax that fails to house the very citizens it was designed to help.