NAIROBI — The brief respite Kenyan households enjoyed for much of 2025 has come to an abrupt, painful end. Data released this morning by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) confirms what every shopper in Gikomba and every motorist in Westlands already suspected: the annual inflation rate skyrocketed in December, driven by a surge in the cost of food, fuel, and electricity.

The report, which paints a grim picture for the start of 2026, indicates that the prices of essential commodities—the very items that define the survival of the common mwananchi—rose sharply in the final month of the year. This spike effectively erases the gains made in late 2024, when inflation had cooled to a manageable 3.0 per cent, and thrusts the economy back into a precarious zone of volatility.

The 'Njaanuary' Reality Check

For the average Kenyan, these are not just abstract percentages; they are the difference between three meals a day and two. The KNBS data highlights that the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Index, which carries the heaviest weight in the consumer basket, was the primary driver of this increase.

"We are seeing a reversal of the stabilization trends we celebrated mid-year," noted an economic analyst at a leading Nairobi investment firm, who spoke on condition of anonymity before the full sector report is analyzed. "The skyrocketing rate in December suggests that supply chain bottlenecks and the creeping rise in import costs are finally hitting the retail shelf."

• Staple Foods: The price of maize flour and sifted flour has ticked upwards, putting pressure on the unga basket just as school fees loom.
• Energy Costs: Pump prices and electricity tariffs have edged higher, increasing production costs for manufacturers—costs that are now being passed on to Wanjiku.
• Transport: Fares on key Nairobi routes spiked in December, a traditional holiday phenomenon that has failed to normalize, leaving commuters stranded or paying premiums.

A Stark Contrast to 2024

To understand the severity of this spike, one must look at the trajectory. In December 2024, the inflation rate stood at a modest 3.0 per cent, a figure that allowed the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) some breathing room to ease monetary policy. The December 2025 figures, however, suggest that the "neutral to negative" economic sentiment expressed by Kenyans in recent polls was a leading indicator of this hard data.

The resurgence of high inflation complicates the government's fiscal planning for 2026. With the shilling facing renewed pressure against the dollar—currently trading at volatile levels—the cost of importing fuel and raw materials remains a critical vulnerability. For a country that imports a significant portion of its wheat and oil, global price shifts translate instantly into local pain.

The Human Cost

In Nairobi’s Kawangware estate, the statistics translate to tough choices. "Last year, I could buy a packet of milk and a loaf of bread without counting coins," says Mary Wanjiku, a mother of three. "Today, I have to choose one. If the government says the economy is growing, they should come to the market and see the prices."

As the country heads into "Njaanuary," a month notorious for financial drought, the timing of this inflation spike could not be worse. Families are already grappling with back-to-school obligations, and the eroded purchasing power means that every Kenya Shilling (KES) stretches a little less than it did just thirty days ago.

"The data is a wake-up call," the report implies. Without immediate intervention to stabilize food supply chains and cushion the energy sector, 2026 risks becoming a year of survival rather than growth.