Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula has publicly shifted his support to Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) candidate Seth Panyako for the Malava constituency by-election, creating a complex political narrative in a race seen as a crucial test of influence in Western Kenya. This development, confirmed in early October 2025, follows reports of his initial support for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate, David Ndakwa, during the ruling party's primaries in September.

The by-election, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025 (EAT), was necessitated by the death of Member of Parliament Malulu Injendi in February 2025. The contest has since evolved into a high-stakes battle primarily between Mr. Panyako, the Secretary-General of the Kenya National Union of Nurses (KNUN), and UDA's Mr. Ndakwa, the Kakamega County Assembly Minority Leader.

A Tale of Shifting Loyalties

Mr. Savula, who holds the position of Deputy Party Leader within DAP-K, was reported to have actively supported David Ndakwa during the UDA party primaries held on Saturday, September 20, 2025 (EAT). An article published by People Daily on September 22, 2025, noted that Savula had urged voters to back Ndakwa. This move aligned him with his superior, Governor Fernandes Barasa (ODM), who also declared his support for the UDA candidate, citing a spirit of cooperation within a "Broad Based Government."

However, by the beginning of October, Mr. Savula's position had evolved. In an interview on Tuesday, October 1, 2025 (EAT), he described himself as "totally conflicted" due to his dual roles as Deputy Governor in a coalition with ODM and as a senior official in DAP-K. While stating he would play a "neutral role" and minimize physical campaign appearances to avoid creating tension with Governor Barasa, he unequivocally stated, "My heart is with the DAP candidate." This sentiment was preceded by DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa's announcement on Thursday, September 18, 2025, that he and Savula would lead the campaign for Panyako in Malava.

The Political Chessboard in Kakamega

The Malava by-election is widely regarded as a litmus test for political dominance in the Luhya bloc ahead of the 2027 general election. The ruling UDA party, led nationally by President William Ruto, has mobilized significant resources, with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and other top figures leading the campaign for David Ndakwa. The decision by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) not to field a candidate and instead support UDA's Ndakwa further underscores the intricate alliances shaping the region's politics.

On the other side, the opposition is attempting to present a united front. In a significant move on Thursday, October 30, 2025 (EAT), the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate, Edgar Busiega, withdrew from the race to endorse Mr. Panyako. This consolidation, aimed at preventing a split in the opposition vote, positions Panyako as the sole challenger from the united opposition against the government-backed candidate.

The Candidates and the Stakes

David Ndakwa secured the UDA ticket in a competitive primary, defeating several aspirants, including Rhyan Injendi, the son of the late MP. His campaign is centered on aligning the constituency with the national government to foster development.

Seth Panyako, a prominent trade unionist, was handed a direct ticket by DAP-K on Thursday, September 18, 2025. His campaign has faced legal challenges regarding his eligibility, which his party has dismissed. He frames his candidacy as a move to reclaim the community's dignity and provide authentic representation. Recent polling data from Mizani Africa, reported on Friday, November 7, 2025 (EAT), indicated Panyako held a lead with 44.7% voter support against Ndakwa's 37.9%.

Mr. Savula's eventual alignment with his party, despite the initial cross-party endorsement, highlights the deep-seated political currents in Kakamega. His actions reflect the broader strategic calculations and shifting loyalties among Western Kenya's political elite as they navigate local pressures and national alliances. The outcome on November 27 will not only determine Malava's next representative but will also send a strong signal about the region's political trajectory.