Sanae Takaichi has moved closer to becoming Japan's first female prime minister after her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) reportedly agreed to form a new coalition with the right-wing Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party). This political shift in Japan is significant for Kenya, a major recipient of Japanese development aid and a key trading partner in East Africa.

Officials confirmed on Monday, October 20, 2025, media reports that Takaichi's LDP would join forces with Nippon Ishin, a party that aligns with her hawkish stance on China and opposition to mass migration.

Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-leader of Nippon Ishin, stated, "Today we will sign the agreement to launch a coalition government," adding that the formalisation would occur later in the day. He further noted, "After giving it careful thought last night, I telephoned President Takaichi this morning to reach a coalition agreement. I conveyed that we should work together to move Japan forward."

Historical and Political Context

The deal concludes a two-week period of uncertainty surrounding Takaichi's bid for the premiership. She was expected to assume the role after winning a vote to lead the LDP earlier this month, following the resignation of former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Her path to power faced a challenge when Komeito, the LDP's coalition partner for 26 years, withdrew. Komeito, backed by the Buddhist organisation Soka Gakkai, cited opposition to Takaichi's hawkish security views and the LDP's failure to address a damaging funding scandal as reasons for its departure. This triggered an unsuccessful attempt by opposition parties to unite behind a single candidate.

Implications for Kenya

Japan is a crucial development partner for Kenya, providing substantial aid for infrastructure projects, healthcare, and education. A stable political environment in Japan, under a new leadership, is vital for the continuity of these partnerships. Kenyan businesses also engage in significant trade with Japan, particularly in vehicle imports and agricultural exports. Any shifts in Japan's economic or foreign policy under Takaichi could have ripple effects on these established relationships.

What to Watch

Observers will be closely monitoring the policy direction of the new Japanese government, particularly regarding its engagement with African nations and its economic strategies. The stability of the new coalition and its ability to address domestic and international challenges will be key factors in determining Japan's future trajectory.

Evidence/Data Box

• Coalition Agreement: Signed on Monday, October 20, 2025, between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Nippon Ishin.
• Previous Coalition: LDP and Komeito, lasted 26 years.
• Key Policy Alignments: Takaichi and Nippon Ishin share hawkish views on China and opposition to mass migration.