NAIROBI, Kenya - A political firestorm is brewing ahead of the 2027 General Election as President William Ruto navigates a complex power-sharing puzzle. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), now a key partner in the government, has publicly declared it will demand nothing less than the Deputy President position in any pre-election pact, a move that has triggered a sharp and immediate backlash from leaders in Deputy President Kithure Kindiki's Mount Kenya East stronghold.

The ultimatum was delivered by ODM's acting party leader, Dr. Oburu Oginga, who stated in early November 2025 that the party's support for President Ruto's re-election is conditional. "If we have to go for a lower position, it must not be lower than number two (deputy president) in any formation. That is my take," Oginga declared in an interview with Nation Media Group on November 3, 2025. This assertion reshapes the political landscape, placing President Ruto in a precarious position between securing a potentially crucial alliance with ODM and maintaining his loyal base in Mt. Kenya.

Leaders from Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi counties, Kindiki's home turf, have responded with a unified and defiant message: their support for the President is intrinsically linked to Kindiki's position on the ticket. During a meeting of grassroots leaders in early November 2025, a contingent of seven Members of Parliament warned that any attempt to sideline the Deputy President would result in a significant political backlash. "We, the Meru people, have not held this position for a long time... That seat belongs to us, to Mount Kenya East," stated Tigania West MP John Mutunga. Buuri MP Mugambi Rindikiri was more direct, cautioning, "In 2027, the person who should be Deputy President is Prof. Kindiki. And if that doesn't happen, we will make our own plans."

A Delicate Balancing Act

President Ruto's challenge is compounded by recent political history. Deputy President Kindiki assumed office on November 1, 2024, following the impeachment of his predecessor, Rigathi Gachagua, which created friction within the broader Mount Kenya region. Alienating Mt. Kenya East by dropping Kindiki could fracture a critical voting bloc that was instrumental to his 2022 victory. Political analysts suggest Ruto cannot afford to lose the mountain's support twice.

ODM's demand is rooted in a 10-point memorandum of understanding signed with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) on March 8, 2025, which paved the way for a "broad-based government." While Dr. Oginga clarified this agreement focuses on governance and not the 2027 succession, he emphasized that ODM is done with being in the opposition and will negotiate from a position of strength. The party's calculus is that delivering the running mate position would be the only way to persuade its substantial support base to back a Ruto presidency. Potential ODM candidates floated in political circles include senior figures who joined the cabinet, such as Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.

East African Tensions: Kenyans Report Hostility in Tanzania

In a separate development with significant regional implications, Kenyans living and working in Tanzania have reported facing increased hostility, intimidation, and arbitrary detention. The tense atmosphere follows Tanzania's disputed general election on October 29, 2025, and subsequent remarks by President Samia Suluhu Hassan blaming foreigners for post-election violence. In her inauguration speech, President Suluhu stated it was "not a surprise that those young people who were arrested for participating in violence included foreigners."

Multiple Kenyans, speaking anonymously for fear of reprisal, described a climate of fear, with increased police roadblocks, scrutiny of mobile phones, and harassment. One researcher recounted being detained for five hours despite having valid documents. The Kenyan government has acknowledged the reports and stated it is engaging with Tanzanian authorities. Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing'oei confirmed on November 7, 2025, that specific cases of rights infringement have been formally submitted to the Tanzanian government for action. The Kenyan High Commission in Dar es Salaam has reassured the estimated 250,000 Kenyans in the country that their safety is a top priority.