A Local Poll with National Consequences

HOMA BAY – A fiercely contested parliamentary by-election in Kasipul Constituency, scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025, has become the latest flashpoint straining the fragile political alliance between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga. What began as a local contest to fill a vacant seat has escalated into a proxy battle, with senior figures from both the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) openly defying the spirit of their leaders' pact.

The division is starkly visible on the ground. Homa Bay Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga, an ODM member, has publicly endorsed independent candidate Philip Aroko, directly challenging his party's nominee, Boyd Were. This move was amplified when local UDA officials, led by Kasipul Chairman Arthur Onyango Aoko, also threw their weight behind Aroko, citing dissatisfaction with ODM's nomination process. This alignment of strange bedfellows underscores the deep-seated rivalries and mistrust simmering beneath the surface of the national handshake.

Background: A Truce Born from Crisis

The current political arrangement was forged in the crucible of the 2024 Gen-Z protests. The nationwide demonstrations against a controversial finance bill, which saw Parliament stormed on June 25, 2024, pushed the country to a political brink. To restore stability, President Ruto withdrew the bill, overhauled his cabinet, and initiated a working agreement with Raila Odinga, which culminated in a formal pact signed on March 7, 2025. This "broad-based government" was intended to lower political temperatures and foster national unity.

However, the Kasipul by-election, triggered by the death of MP Charles Ong'ondo Were in April 2025, is proving to be a severe stress test for this pact. The race pits the late MP's son, Boyd Were, who secured the ODM ticket, against the flamboyant businessman Philip Aroko, who is running as an independent.

Escalating Tensions and Violence

The campaign has been marred by inflammatory rhetoric and deadly violence. On November 6, 2025, violent clashes between rival supporters in Central Kasipul Ward resulted in the tragic deaths of two young men. Both camps have traded accusations of intimidation and orchestrating violence. Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma has accused police of targeting the ODM candidate and failing to provide adequate security, further heightening tensions.

In response to the escalating violence, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has taken punitive action, fining both Boyd Were and Philip Aroko KSh 1 million each for violating the electoral code of conduct. The commission has repeatedly warned candidates that they risk disqualification if they fail to maintain peace.

IEBC Assures Readiness Amid Scrutiny

The by-election is one of 24 mini-polls being held nationwide on November 27, serving as the first major test for the newly constituted IEBC led by Chairperson Erastus Ethekon. Despite the volatile environment in Kasipul, the IEBC has assured the public of its full preparedness. On Friday, November 21, the commission began dispatching ballot papers and other election materials from Nairobi to the various electoral areas. IEBC CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan confirmed on Tuesday, November 25, that all logistical arrangements are complete and security measures have been enhanced, with additional officers deployed to political hotspots like Kasipul.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, the Kasipul by-election is no longer just about local representation. It has become a crucial barometer of Kenya's political health, testing the resilience of a national pact and offering a preview of the realignments and potential conflicts that could define the road to the 2027 General Election.