A Vision for Food Sovereignty

During his Mashujaa Day address in Kitui on Monday, October 20, 2025, President William Ruto declared that Kenya will build at least 50 mega-dams to bring two million acres under irrigation within the next decade. This extensive irrigation plan is central to the government's strategy to achieve food security and shift Kenya from a net food importer to a regional agricultural exporter.

President Ruto emphasized that relying on rain-fed agriculture can no longer sustain Kenya's growing population and that the country's annual food import bill, currently exceeding KSh 500 billion, is unsustainable and a threat to national sovereignty. The proposed dams, similar in scale to the Thwake Dam, are expected to cost approximately KSh 1.5 trillion (USD 11.6 billion). This investment is projected to expand irrigated land, create millions of jobs, and provide products for export markets that Kenya has already secured through trade deals with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the European Union, the United States under AGOA, and China.

Historical Context and Ongoing Efforts

Kenya's agricultural sector has historically been the backbone of its economy, contributing over 20% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employing a significant portion of the population. However, the country has consistently faced challenges with food insecurity, exacerbated by erratic rainfall and droughts. In 2023, over 5.4 million people experienced acute food insecurity between March and June. The 2025 Global Hunger Index ranked Kenya 103rd out of 123 countries, indicating a serious level of hunger.

Previous governments have also initiated dam and irrigation projects to address these issues. Since 2013, the government has undertaken several mega-dam projects, including Thwake Dam, Itare Dam, and Karimenu Dam, with a total value exceeding KSh 156 billion. The National Irrigation Authority (NIA) manages various irrigation schemes across the country, such as Mwea, Galana Kulalu, and Bura, aiming to expand the land under irrigation. In March 2025, the government launched the National Irrigation Sector Investment Plan (NISIP), a 10-year strategy to expand irrigated land by one million acres with an estimated investment of KSh 598 billion.

Policy and Governance Framework

The government plans to finance the ambitious 50-dam project through a new National Infrastructure Fund, which will pool resources from the national budget, private sector investments, and proceeds from privatization. This fund is also intended to support other critical infrastructure projects, including energy generation and transport networks.

The Ministry of Water, Sanitation and Irrigation, along with agencies like the National Water Harvesting and Storage Authority (NWHSA) and the Water Resources Authority (WRA), are central to the planning, construction, and management of these water projects. The government's commitment to providing clean and safe water by 2030, as enshrined in the Constitution, underpins these efforts.

Stakeholder Perspectives and Challenges

While the vision for expanded irrigation is widely supported as a means to enhance food security and economic growth, the implementation of such large-scale projects has historically faced challenges. Some past dam projects, like Arror and Kimwarer, have stalled due to claims of irregularities. Land acquisition and compensation concerns have also delayed projects, such as the Mwache Dam.

Farmers' perceptions of existing irrigation projects highlight the potential for increased productivity, improved income, and reduced reliance on food aid. However, the sustainability of small-scale irrigation schemes has been a concern, with some performing poorly in terms of yields and economic returns.

Evidence and Data

The agricultural sector contributed 21.65% to Kenya's GDP between 2019 and 2024, consistently remaining above 20% through the first quarter of 2025. Despite this, Kenya's self-sufficiency rate in food production is 90.3%, with an import dependency of 12.7%. In 2022, maize production declined by 12.8% from 42.1 million bags in 2020 to 36.7 million bags, further dropping to 34.3 million bags. The government currently spends over KSh 500 billion annually on importing staples such as maize, wheat, rice, sugar, and edible oils.

Risks and Implications

The success of this ambitious dam construction program hinges on effective project management, transparent financial oversight, and addressing potential environmental and social impacts. Large-scale dam projects can lead to displacement of communities and ecological changes, necessitating careful planning and mitigation measures. The significant financial investment of KSh 1.5 trillion also requires robust funding mechanisms and accountability to avoid cost overruns and delays.

Unknowns and Controversies

Details regarding the specific locations of all 50 proposed mega-dams, their individual capacities, and detailed environmental impact assessments are yet to be fully disclosed. The exact timeline for the completion of all 50 dams within the stated decade remains an ambitious target, given the complexities and potential delays associated with such large-scale infrastructure projects. The balance between large-scale dam construction and smaller, community-based water harvesting initiatives will also be crucial for equitable water distribution and local resilience.

Timeline and Next Steps

President Ruto's announcement on Monday, October 20, 2025, signals the commencement of a concerted effort towards this irrigation expansion. The government plans to table legislation in Parliament to establish the National Infrastructure Fund, which will be critical for financing these projects.

What to Watch

Observers will be keenly watching for the detailed implementation plan for the 50 mega-dams, including specific project timelines, funding allocations, and strategies for community engagement and environmental protection. The effectiveness of the National Infrastructure Fund in mobilizing the necessary resources and ensuring transparent expenditure will be a key indicator of the program's potential success. Furthermore, the impact of these irrigation projects on reducing food import bills and improving the livelihoods of Kenyan farmers will be closely monitored.

Related Stories

• Kenya Launches Ambitious 10-Year Irrigation Plan to Boost Food Security and Create 5 Million Jobs (March 26, 2025)
• Solar Power Project to Boost Irrigation and Food Security in Kenya (October 12, 2025)
• Ruto details how Kenya can save Ksh500B a year in 50-dam project (October 13, 2025)