In a provocative analysis that is sure to rattle the political establishment in Central Kenya, former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu has declared that President William Ruto has outgrown his reliance on the Mountain vote.

Speaking on NTV, the famously fluid strategist argued that the political arithmetic for 2027 has fundamentally shifted. Wambugu, who recently defected from the Gachagua camp to Jubilee, suggests that the "tyranny of numbers" no longer dictates that the road to State House must pass through Nyeri and Kiambu.

The "Raila Advantage"

"The dynamics have changed," Wambugu asserted. "Since the exit of Raila Odinga from the active ballot equation, the traditional voting blocs have fragmented. Ruto has made significant inroads into Nyanza and Western, regions that were previously locked zones. He has diversified his portfolio."

Wambugu’s thesis is that the President has successfully decoupled his political survival from the whims of the Mt. Kenya electorate. By effectively neutralizing the opposition through the "broad-based government" deals of 2024 and 2025, Ruto has created a new coalition that renders the Kikuyu vote "important, but not indispensable."

• The Gachagua Factor: This statement is a direct swipe at Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and his new DCP outfit. Gachagua’s entire strategy relies on consolidating the Mountain to bargain with Ruto. Wambugu is essentially telling the region: "Your bargaining chip has lost value."
• A Warning to the Mountain: "If we think we can hold the President hostage, we are mistaken," Wambugu warned. "He will bypass us and win with the rest of Kenya. We risk becoming an isolated opposition enclave."
• The 2027 Calculus: With the opposition in disarray and new alliances forming, Wambugu predicts a comfortable win for Ruto, potentially leaving Mt. Kenya in the political cold if they do not align strategically.

The Messenger and the Message

While Wambugu is known for his shifting allegiances, his reading of the political barometer is often sharp. His comments reflect a growing anxiety among Central Kenya leaders that their influence is waning. Whether this is a prophetic warning or a ploy to herd the region back into government, one thing is clear: the myth of the indispensable Mountain is being tested like never before.