The simmering tensions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) have boiled over, with Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga openly defying the party’s push for an early coalition pact with President William Ruto. In a bold declaration, she warned that "rushing into bed" with the government a full year before the 2027 polls is a strategic suicide.

Ruth, a scion of the Odinga dynasty and sister to the late veteran opposition chief Raila Odinga, is not just another MP; she is a custodian of the party’s ideological soul. Her dissent signals a deep fracture in the Orange party between the "realists" led by her brother Oburu Oginga, who seek state patronage, and the "purists" who believe ODM’s strength lies in its independence. "We are a movement of the people," she thundered, "not a department of the State House."

The Battle for ODM’s Soul

The controversy stems from a recent decision by the Central Management Committee to authorize Oburu Oginga to initiate pre-election coalition talks. Ruth argues this is premature and dangerous. By committing to Ruto now, ODM risks alienating its base, which is grappling with the high cost of living—inflation is currently hovering at 6.8%, and the price of fuel remains a sore point for the wananchi.

Her stance resonates with the grassroots supporters in Nyanza and the Coast, who feel the "Broad-Based Government" arrangement has yielded few tangible benefits for the common man. While Cabinet slots have been secured for a few elites, the promised development projects are moving at a snails pace. Ruth’s message is clear: strengthen the party first, negotiate later.

• The 2027 Calculus: President Ruto is a master tactician. By locking ODM into a deal early, he neutralizes his biggest threat. Ruth sees the trap: if ODM becomes part of the government now, it owns the government’s failures come 2027.
• Internal Democracy: Ruth accused the party leadership of bypassing the members. "You cannot sell a cow without the owner’s permission," she metaphorically stated, demanding a National Delegates Conference to decide the party’s direction.

A Family Feud?

The public disagreement between Ruth and Oburu adds a layer of Shakespearean drama to the political intrigue. It suggests that the Odinga family is not a monolith, and the vacuum left by Raila’s departure from active local politics has sparked a succession war. Oburu favors stability and legacy; Ruth favors the fiery activism that built the party.

As the political drums for 2027 begin to beat, Ruth Odinga has positioned herself as the voice of the skepticism. Whether she can rally enough troops to halt the "Ruto wave" sweeping through Orange House remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the Orange party is far from united.