Motorists in Kenya should brace for turbulence at the pump as US President Donald Trump moves to seize oil tankers linked to Venezuela, sending jitters through the global energy market.

The seizure of two vessels, including a Russian-flagged ship, marks a dramatic escalation in US foreign policy that directly impacts Nairobi. Kenya, a net importer of petroleum products, is highly sensitive to global supply disruptions. Any constriction in global oil flow inevitably translates to higher landed costs in Mombasa, which the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) passes on to consumers.

The Global Ripple Effect

Trump’s aggressive "America First" energy strategy aims to control supply chains, but in the short term, it creates volatility. With the shilling stabilizing, a spike in global crude prices would undo recent gains.

• Supply Shock: Removing Venezuelan oil from the open market tightens supply, potentially pushing Brent crude prices upward.
• Local Impact: An increase in fuel prices would drive up the cost of electricity (thermal power) and transport, feeding into inflation for food and basic goods.
• Strategic Reserves: The crisis highlights Kenya’s vulnerability due to a lack of significant strategic fuel reserves to cushion against such geopolitical shocks.

Analyst Verdict

Energy experts warn that while Trump claims his moves will eventually lower prices by increasing US dominance, the transition period will be painful. "When elephants fight, the grass suffers," an energy consultant in Nairobi observed. "Kenya is the grass."