The political marriage between President William Ruto and his Deputy Kithure Kindiki is facing its sternest test yet. In a high-stakes poker game for the 2027 ticket, the President has officially opened coalition talks with ODM, triggering panic in the Mt Kenya voting bloc.

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) National Executive Committee, chaired by Ruto himself, has mandated the President to lead "structured negotiations" with the Orange party. But the price of Raila Odinga’s party’s support is steep: they want the Deputy Presidency.

The Mt Kenya Dilemma

For Kindiki, the writing is on the wall. Having replaced Rigathi Gachagua to stabilize the mountain, he now finds himself potentially sacrificed on the altar of national unity. ODM grandee Oburu Oginga has been unequivocal: "We go to the table not for peanuts but for what we rightfully deserve."

• The Deal: Sources indicate ODM is eyeing the running mate slot, a move that would cement a "super alliance" but alienate the vote-rich Central region.
• The Reaction: UDA insiders from the Rift Valley are pushing for the deal to secure a landslide, while Mt Kenya MPs are quietly mobilizing, fearing political betrayal.

President Ruto is walking a tightrope. He needs ODM to govern effectively and pass crucial bills, but he cannot afford to lose the Mountain. As the talks progress, Kindiki’s silence is deafening. Is he a placeholder, or will he fight for his survival?

"In politics, there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests," a seasoned analyst noted. For Kindiki, that interest might just be survival.