Escalating Shadow War in Europe

WARSAW—Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, accused Russian intelligence services of orchestrating an “unprecedented act of sabotage” on a strategic railway line used for transporting vital aid to Ukraine. In a detailed address to the Polish parliament, Tusk stated that investigators had identified two Ukrainian nationals as the primary suspects responsible for two separate incidents that occurred over the preceding weekend. The suspects, who Polish authorities claim have long-standing ties to Russian intelligence, allegedly crossed into Poland from Belarus, carried out the attacks, and have since fled back across the border.

The sabotage involved two distinct methods aimed at causing a major catastrophe. In one incident near the village of Mika, approximately 100 kilometers southeast of Warsaw, a military-grade explosive device was detonated under a freight train, causing minor damage to the train but significant damage to the tracks. In a second incident, a steel clamp was attached to the rails, an act Tusk described as “likely intended to derail a train.” Polish prosecutors have opened a terrorism investigation, stating the acts were committed for the benefit of foreign intelligence and created an immediate danger of a large-scale disaster. In response, Poland’s Defence Minister announced that army patrols would be deployed to secure critical infrastructure.

A Pattern of Russian Hybrid Warfare

Prime Minister Tusk framed the railway attacks not as an isolated event, but as part of a broader, escalating campaign of Russian hybrid warfare across the continent. “Acts of sabotage and actions of Russian services across the whole of Europe, not only in Poland, are unfortunately gaining momentum,” Tusk warned his parliament. This assessment is supported by security analysts and a series of recent events. European intelligence agencies have warned that since expelling hundreds of Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover in 2022, Moscow has increasingly turned to recruiting proxies, often online via platforms like Telegram, to carry out attacks. These operations, which include arson, vandalism, and cyber-attacks, are designed to destabilize European governments, disrupt support for Ukraine, and sow fear and division. Polish authorities noted that 55 individuals have been detained in relation to such offenses recently, with 23 arrested specifically for acts of sabotage.

The Kremlin, through spokesman Dmitry Peskov, dismissed the accusations as another example of the “Russophobia” that is “flourishing” in Europe, ironically stating it would be “strange if Russia wasn’t blamed first.” Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow deliberately recruits holders of Ukrainian passports for such operations to create instability and shift blame for its own crimes. Tusk himself acknowledged this tactic, suggesting the recruitment of Ukrainians was intended to “stir up possibly radically anti-Ukrainian sentiments” in Poland, a country hosting over a million Ukrainian refugees.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While the explosions in Eastern Europe may seem distant, the conflict's ripple effects and the tactics of hybrid warfare are increasingly relevant to Kenya. The Polish incident underscores a global security threat that directly intersects with recent developments in the region. In early November 2025, Kenya’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement confirming that over 200 Kenyan nationals are believed to be fighting for Russia in Ukraine. Officials reported that many were lured by recruitment networks in both Kenya and Russia with false promises of non-combat roles and high pay, only to be deployed to the front lines. This recruitment of foreign nationals, often from the Global South, is a key component of Russia's strategy to bolster its military ranks without resorting to unpopular domestic mobilization.

This development complicates Kenya's official foreign policy, which recently shifted towards a more neutral, non-aligned stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, in line with the African Group's position at the United Nations. This neutrality is tested not only by the exploitation of its citizens but also by Russia's broader strategic aims in the region. According to security analysts, Russia is actively working to expand its economic and political influence in Kenya, viewing it as a gateway to undermine U.S. and Western influence in East Africa. By embedding itself in key sectors like logistics and agribusiness and gaining access to strategic ports, Moscow aims to create economic dependencies that can be leveraged for political gain.

The events in Poland serve as a stark reminder of the complex, multi-faceted nature of modern global conflicts. For Kenya, the challenge is twofold: protecting its citizens from being drawn into distant wars through deceptive recruitment, and navigating the geopolitical pressures from global powers seeking to expand their influence on the continent. The reports of mistreatment of Africans, including Kenyans, at the Polish-Ukrainian border at the war's outset also remain a point of contention, shaping African perceptions of the European response to the crisis. As Russia's shadow war in Europe intensifies, the need for vigilance and a clear-eyed assessment of its impact on Kenyan and regional security becomes ever more critical. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED.