Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, accused Russian intelligence services of orchestrating an “unprecedented” and “most serious” act of sabotage on its soil since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The announcement followed two incidents over the weekend on a strategic railway line used to transport military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Speaking before the Polish parliament, Tusk confirmed that authorities had identified two Ukrainian citizens as the primary suspects. He stated that the individuals had been cooperating with Russian intelligence for a long time, entered Poland from Belarus in the autumn, and fled back to Belarus after the attacks. “We are dealing with an act of sabotage, the consequence of which could have been... a serious catastrophe with casualties,” Tusk declared, adding that “a certain line has been crossed.”

The main incident occurred on Saturday, 15 November 2025, near the village of Mika, approximately 100 kilometres southeast of Warsaw. According to Tusk, the perpetrators used a military-grade C-4 explosive that detonated under a freight train, causing minor damage to the wagon but significant damage to the tracks. A second incident involved damage to overhead power lines further south near Puławy, forcing a passenger train to halt. Polish prosecutors have opened an investigation into “acts of sabotage of a terrorist nature” for the benefit of foreign intelligence.

Implications for Kenya and East Africa

While geographically distant, the events in Poland underscore the expanding nature of Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics, which carry significant implications for global stability and, by extension, Kenyan interests. Hybrid warfare involves a blend of conventional warfare, irregular tactics, and cyberattacks, often using proxies to create disruption and plausible deniability. The alleged use of Ukrainian nationals by Russia is a tactic designed to sow chaos and inflame anti-Ukrainian sentiment in a key NATO and European Union member state.

For Kenya, this escalation serves as a critical geopolitical lesson. The nation has maintained a complex diplomatic posture, condemning the invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations while also engaging with Russia. President William Ruto has termed Russia's aggression “unlawful” and noted its severe impact on fertilizer prices in Kenya. The Polish incident highlights the risk that conflicts can spill over in unpredictable ways, pressuring neutral nations and straining the international rules-based order that Kenya relies upon for trade and security.

Economically, instability in Europe, a key trading partner, poses a direct risk. The European Union is Kenya's second-largest trading partner and most important export market, with total trade reaching €3.3 billion in 2022. Disruptions to European transport and logistics networks, even if temporary, can have cascading effects on global supply chains, potentially affecting the cost and availability of imported machinery and chemical products, and the flow of Kenyan exports like vegetables, fruits, and flowers.

Furthermore, the recruitment of foreign nationals for covert operations is a direct security concern. In November 2025, the Kenyan government confirmed that over 200 of its citizens had been lured into fighting for Russian forces in Ukraine, often through deceptive employment offers. The Polish case, where citizens of a third country were allegedly used as saboteurs, provides a stark warning about the vulnerability of individuals to recruitment by foreign intelligence services for destabilizing activities.

A Widening Shadow War

Prime Minister Tusk warned that “acts of sabotage and actions of Russian services across the whole of Europe... are unfortunately gaining momentum.” This assessment is echoed by security analysts, who have noted a significant increase in Russian-backed covert operations since 2022, targeting critical infrastructure to undermine European support for Ukraine. Poland, as the primary logistical hub for aid flowing into Ukraine, is a prime target for such attacks.

In response to the attacks, Poland has deployed army patrols to secure key infrastructure and raised the threat level on selected rail routes. The Kremlin, through spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, dismissed the accusations as “Russophobia... in full bloom.”

The incident demonstrates a clear escalation in a long-running shadow war between Russia and the West. For Kenya and other African nations, it is a reminder that the consequences of the war in Ukraine are not confined to Europe but have global security, economic, and diplomatic repercussions that demand vigilant monitoring and strategic foresight.