The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is staring into the abyss of a fractious succession war, with factions now openly defying the legitimacy of Dr. Oburu Oginga’s tenure as Acting Party Leader following the demise of Raila Odinga.

What began as a respectful mourning period has dissolved into a vicious power struggle. The trigger? A defiant statement by Winnie Odinga, asserting that her uncle’s leadership remains "temporary and conditional" until ratified by a National Delegates Convention (NDC). This public rebuke from the Odinga inner sanctum signals that the dynasty is not united on who should carry the mantle.

The Constitutional Crisis

The dispute hinges on Article 6 of the ODM Constitution. While the National Executive Committee (NEC) installed Oburu in October 2025 to fill the void, critics like Saboti MP Caleb Amisi argue the appointment was a stop-gap measure that has overstayed its welcome. "There is no monarchy in ODM," Amisi declared in a podcast that has ruffled feathers at Chungwa House. "You cannot inherit a political party like a piece of land. The delegates must decide."

The "Young Turks" within the party are agitating for a complete overhaul. They fear that tethering the party’s future to the elder Oginga—a statesman but not a firebrand—will alienate the Gen Z voting bloc that Raila had begun to cultivate.

• The Legitimacy Deficit: Without an NDC, every decision Oburu makes is legally contestable. Party nominations, coalition agreements, and disciplinary actions are currently hanging by a thread.
• The Replacement Scramble: Behind the scenes, powerful figures including former governors and vocal MPs are quietly canvassing for the top seat. They view the delay in calling an NDC as a tactic by the "old guard" to entrench themselves.
• The Winnie Factor: Winnie Odinga’s intervention is calculated. By insisting on due process, she is positioning herself not necessarily as the heir, but as the kingmaker—or perhaps the conscience of a party struggling to find its soul without its founder.

A Party at the Crossroads

The ODM machinery is paralyzed. The "Acting" tag hanging over Oburu Oginga has created a leadership vacuum where warlords are emerging in the party’s strongholds of Nyanza, Western, and the Coast. Without the commanding presence of Raila Odinga to whip members into line, discipline is fraying.

The upcoming NEC meeting will be the battleground. If a date for the NDC is not set, the party risks a split that could hand the 2027 election to their opponents on a silver platter. The lion is gone, and the pride is turning on itself.