Just six months after her expulsion from the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), former nominated senator Gloria Orwoba has predicted a sweeping defeat for the ruling party in the highly anticipated by-elections scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025. In a statement released via her social media on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, Orwoba claimed the party would lose all key parliamentary and ward seats it is contesting, signaling a potential shift in voter sentiment 19 months before the next general election.

The former senator, who was ousted from UDA in May 2025 over allegations of gross misconduct and disloyalty, specifically pointed to losses in Mbeere North, Malava, and Magarini constituencies, as well as all three contested wards in Nyamira County. Her forecast also included a loss for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in the Kasipul contest, suggesting a broader anti-incumbent mood. "UDA will lose Mbeere North. UDA will lose Malava. UDA will lose Magharini. UDA will lose all 3 Nyamira Wards... Then ODM will lose Kasipul," her post read.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has scheduled 24 by-elections for November 27, including six National Assembly seats and 17 Members of County Assembly (MCA) wards, making it a significant political litmus test for all parties.

Analysis of Key Battlegrounds

Orwoba's predictions highlight several high-stakes contests where local and national political dynamics are intensely at play.

Malava Constituency: This by-election, triggered by the death of MP Malulu Injendi, has become a focal point of competition in Western Kenya. UDA is fielding David Ndakwa, who faces a formidable challenge from Seth Panyako of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K). Panyako has consolidated support from the united opposition, with Edgar Busiega of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) stepping down to endorse him. While a Mizani Africa poll from September 2025 indicated UDA was the most popular party in the constituency (35.6%), it also showed Panyako as the most preferred candidate (27.7%), suggesting his personal appeal transcends party lines. Top UDA officials, including Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, have been actively campaigning for Ndakwa, underscoring the ruling party's determination to win the seat.

Magarini Constituency: Contrary to Orwoba's prediction of a UDA loss, the ruling party is not fielding a candidate in Magarini. In a strategic move under the broad-based government pact, UDA is supporting the ODM candidate, Harrison Kombe. The main challenger is Stanley Kenga of the DCP, who was the petitioner in the case that nullified Kombe's 2022 victory. The race is therefore a test of the UDA-ODM cooperation against the growing influence of Rigathi Gachagua's DCP in the Coast region.

Nyamira County Wards: The by-elections in Ekerenyo, Nyamaiya, and Nyansiongo wards are shaping up to be a direct contest between President William Ruto's UDA and forces allied with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, whose United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has fielded candidates. The outcome is widely seen as a measure of Matiang'i's political influence in his home turf ahead of the 2027 general elections. UDA has presented candidates for all three seats: Francis Amenya Ndubi (Ekerenyo), Thomas Onchaba Nyandiekie (Nyamaiya), and Dennis Kebaso Nyaribo (Nyansiongo). The vacancies arose from a resignation, a death, and a court nullification, respectively.

Mbeere North Constituency: This race pits UDA's candidate against a candidate from the Democratic Party (DP), backed by the Gachagua-led opposition faction. The contest has drawn in national figures, with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki leading the UDA campaign, framing it as a crucial battle for the government's authority in the Mt. Kenya region.

Broader Political Implications

Orwoba's public predictions, coming from a recently expelled member, are designed to challenge the narrative of UDA's political dominance. While a September 2025 survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) showed UDA as Kenya's most popular party at 16%, it also noted that 31% of Kenyans feel no affiliation to any party, indicating significant voter volatility. Orwoba suggested the by-election outcomes could trigger a cabinet reshuffle as the government responds to the political shifts. These mini-polls serve as an early indicator of party strengths and voter priorities as the country moves closer to the 2027 general election cycle.