ODM Navigates Post-Odinga Era Amidst Calls for Legacy Protection

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is grappling with internal and external pressures to protect the political legacy of its departed leader, Raila Odinga. This comes as President William Ruto's administration appears to be strategically aligning itself with Odinga's ideals and the ODM party, raising concerns among some party members about the potential dilution of Odinga's long-standing influence.

Starehe MP Amos Mwago has cautioned ODM against allowing President Ruto to interfere with the party's direction, likening the President's overtures to a "bedbug" and urging key ODM figures like Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino to actively shield Odinga's legacy. This sentiment highlights a growing apprehension within certain ODM factions regarding the party's future identity and autonomy.

Historical and Political Context: Odinga's Enduring Influence

Raila Odinga, who passed away on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, in India, was a pivotal figure in Kenyan politics for over three decades. His career was marked by a relentless pursuit of democratic reforms, human rights, and social justice, earning him the moniker "father of democracy" from some observers. Odinga's contributions include his instrumental role in the transition to multiparty democracy in the early 1990s and the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution.

Despite never achieving the presidency in his five attempts, Odinga's influence profoundly shaped Kenya's political landscape. He was a unifying symbol for opposition forces, around whom diverse groups often coalesced. His ability to mobilise support across ethnic lines and connect with ordinary Kenyans earned him a devoted following.

Laws, Policy, and Governance: The 10-Point Agenda

A significant aspect of Odinga's recent political engagement was the 10-point political agenda signed in March 2025 between him and President Ruto. This agreement, which followed months of anti-government protests, aimed to address pressing governance and human rights issues, including strengthening devolution, enhancing accountability, and protecting fundamental freedoms. ODM Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi has urged the Ruto administration to fast-track the implementation of this agenda as a true tribute to Odinga's legacy.

The agenda also commits to safeguarding the right to assemble and petition under Article 37 of the Constitution, a right often challenged during past demonstrations led by Odinga's movement. Discussions between ODM and United Democratic Alliance (UDA) counterparts reportedly led to an agreement for the agenda's implementation by March 2026.

Stakeholders and Testimonies: Divided Loyalties

Odinga's passing has exposed divisions within ODM regarding the party's future direction and its relationship with the ruling UDA party. While some ODM leaders, including Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi and Hassan Joho, and Governors James Orengo and Abdulswamad Sherrif, have affirmed the party's commitment to the broad-based government, others, like ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, have adopted a more cautious stance.

During Odinga's funeral service, President Ruto vowed to protect ODM from internal disintegration and to honour Odinga's legacy by preserving the party's strength and integrity. He also posthumously conferred the Chief of the Order of Golden Heart (CGH) medal on Odinga, Kenya's highest honour, a move seen by some analysts as an attempt to co-opt Odinga's political influence into the establishment.

Evidence and Data: The Shifting Political Landscape

• March 2025: President William Ruto and Raila Odinga sign a 10-point political agenda aimed at national stability and addressing key governance issues.

• October 15, 2025: Raila Odinga passes away in India at the age of 80.

• October 19, 2025: During Odinga's funeral, President Ruto pledges to support ODM's unity and honour the political pact.

• October 20, 2025: ODM Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi urges the government to expedite the implementation of the 10-point agenda by March 2026.

Risks and Implications: A Vacuum in Opposition

Odinga's death creates a significant political vacuum, particularly within the opposition. His absence removes a stabilising force from Kenya's often volatile political scene and could lead to the resurgence of ideological and factional lines within ODM. Analysts suggest that alliances built around Odinga's person may fracture or be renegotiated.

For President Ruto, Odinga's death presents a different political reality. While it may strengthen his influence over opposition dynamics, it also removes a key figure capable of restraining mass protests. The President had reportedly been banking on Odinga's support for the 2027 elections.

Unknowns and Controversies: The 2027 Question

A major point of contention is whether ODM will back President Ruto's re-election bid in 2027. While some ODM officials claim Odinga instructed them to remain in the broad-based government, Secretary General Edwin Sifuna maintains that Odinga's last public pronouncement suggested ODM still had the option to front its own candidate. Odinga's last public appearance on September 22, 2027, saw him remind ODM members to adhere to the March 2025 MoU, which he insisted did not cover the 2027 elections.

The question of succession within ODM also remains unanswered, as Odinga never named a clear successor, leaving the party vulnerable. This dynamic makes the future leadership delicate, particularly given the party's historical roots in Odinga's Luo community.

Timeline and Next Steps: March 2026 Deadline

The immediate focus for ODM and the government will be the implementation of the 10-point agenda, with a target completion date of March 2026. This period will likely see continued discussions and negotiations between ODM and UDA. The internal dynamics of ODM, particularly regarding leadership and its stance on the 2027 elections, will also be closely watched.

What to Watch: ODM's Future and Political Realignment

Observers will be keenly watching how ODM navigates its post-Odinga era, particularly its ability to maintain unity and define its political trajectory. The extent to which President Ruto's administration genuinely implements the 10-point agenda will also be a key indicator of the future political landscape. The realignment of political forces in the lead-up to the 2027 general election, in the absence of Odinga's towering influence, will be a defining feature of Kenyan politics in the coming months.

Related Stories:

• Kenya's Political Landscape Shifts After Odinga's Demise
• The Legacy of Raila Odinga: A Champion of Democracy
• Ruto's Overtures to Opposition Spark Debate