A seismic shift in Kenyan politics is solidifying after the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) swept all parliamentary seats in the highly contested November 27 by-elections. The victories are being hailed by leaders of both parties as a powerful public endorsement of their burgeoning, 'broad-based' arrangement.

This alliance, born from a 10-point agenda agreed upon by President Ruto and the late Raila Odinga, is rapidly evolving from a political truce into a formidable coalition. For Kenyans grappling with the high cost of living, this new political calculus raises urgent questions: will this mega-alliance focus on economic relief and development, or will it diminish the oversight that a robust opposition provides?

The joint electoral dominance was on full display across the country. ODM successfully defended its traditional strongholds, securing seats in Kasipul, Ugunja, and Magarini. Simultaneously, UDA captured crucial seats in Mbeere North, Malava, and Banisa, demonstrating the partnership's wide-reaching influence.

A New Political Calculus

Leaders from both camps were quick to frame the results as a mandate for their unity. President Ruto declared the wins a sign that Kenyans are tired of divisive politics, while new ODM leader Dr. Oburu Oginga described the alliance as an 'unbeatable force'. "We have a single agenda: to serve Kenyans," Oginga noted during a recent event, emphasizing a shared commitment that points towards a deeper collaboration for 2027.

The arrangement is built on the implementation of a 10-point pact focusing on issues like inclusivity, devolution, and constitutionalism. Speaking at Chungwa House, Oginga urged the government to fully implement the deal before the 2027 deadline, stating, "The party is united and strong, and that it should not be taken for granted by anyone."

However, the by-elections were not without controversy. Reports of violence, voter intimidation, and electoral malpractice emerged in several constituencies, including Malava and Kasipul, casting a shadow over the victories and raising concerns about the political climate ahead of 2027.

What It Means for Kenyans

This political realignment could have significant consequences for governance and accountability. Proponents argue the stability from the UDA-ODM pact will accelerate development and unify the country. Critics, however, warn that it could weaken the opposition's role in holding the government accountable, potentially leaving citizens with fewer avenues to question policy.

The partnership's success is seen by some analysts as a 'political masterstroke' that gives President Ruto the stability to push his agenda while keeping ODM central to governance. Yet, dissent bubbles within ODM, with figures like Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna publicly opposing the arrangement. For the average Kenyan, the ultimate test will be whether this powerful alliance translates into tangible economic relief or becomes another elite pact that sidelines their pressing concerns.

As National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed put it, the pact's implementation will determine the future. "If the ten-point agenda is implemented and this broad-based arrangement delivers for Kenyans, then we can form a coalition," he stated, framing the move as a pathway to power.