The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has unequivocally declared it will field candidates under its own party banner in the upcoming by-elections, pushing back against the notion of joint “broad-based” candidates with its government partners. The party's leadership, speaking on Monday, November 3, 2025, during a campaign rally in Magarini, Kilifi County, emphasized that while ODM remains part of a working arrangement with President William Ruto's administration, it will not dilute its identity at the ballot box.

This decision sets a complex political tone for the 23 mini-polls scheduled by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) for Thursday, November 27, 2025. The by-elections, which include one senatorial seat, six parliamentary constituencies, and 16 county assembly wards, are widely seen as a litmus test for the prevailing political alignments and a rehearsal for the 2027 General Election.

Navigating a Tense Alliance

The controversy stems from differing interpretations of the post-2022 working pact between President Ruto and the late ODM leader, Raila Odinga. Senior government figures, including Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki, have publicly endorsed the idea of unified “broad-based candidates.” According to this arrangement, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) would support ODM candidates in its strongholds of Kasipul, Ugunja, and Magarini, while ODM would reciprocate by backing UDA aspirants in Malava, Banisa, Mbeere North, and for the Baringo Senate seat.

However, ODM's top brass has forcefully rejected this terminology. On Saturday, November 1, 2025, ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna stated that the term could confuse the party's support base. “We are going for the race as Orange. There is no party called 'broad-based.' Others will compete as UDA, and we will go as ODM,” the Nairobi Senator asserted. This sentiment was echoed by acting party leader Dr. Oburu Oginga and Chairperson Gladys Wanga, who insisted that Mr. Odinga's final directive was for the party to remain intact and distinct.

High-Stakes Electoral Contests

The IEBC, under its new chairperson Erastus Ethekon, has outlined a clear timeline for the polls, with the official campaign period running from October 8 to November 24, 2025. The vacancies arose from a mix of factors, including court nullifications, resignations, and the deaths of incumbents.

The key parliamentary races include:

• Magarini Constituency: Where ODM's Harrison Kombe seeks to reclaim the seat he lost after a court nullified his 2022 victory.
• Kasipul Constituency: A vacancy created by the death of MP Charles Ong'ondo Were in April 2025.
• Ugunja Constituency: Left vacant after the appointment of Opiyo Wandayi to the Cabinet.
• Other contests include seats in Banissa, Malava, and Mbeere North constituencies, alongside the Baringo County senatorial race.

For ODM, these by-elections are a crucial moment. Coinciding with the party's 20th anniversary, a strong performance would project stability and strength following the death of its founder, Raila Odinga, on October 15, 2025. Conversely, losses in its traditional strongholds could signal a decline in influence and embolden rivals. The party has been conducting vigorous campaigns under its “#ChungwaNation” banner, aiming to secure all seats it is contesting.

Implications for Kenya's Political Future

ODM's firm stance on maintaining its identity highlights the delicate balance it must strike. While the “broad-based government” arrangement provides a platform for service delivery and national healing, party strategists are wary of being absorbed by the ruling coalition. Leaders like Mr. Sifuna have cautioned against using the by-election campaigns to drum up support for President Ruto's 2027 re-election bid, stating that ODM has not made any decision on its presidential strategy for the next cycle.

The public disagreement between ODM and UDA figures over the by-election strategy reveals underlying tensions within their pact. Analysts suggest ODM's pushback is a strategic move to preserve its brand autonomy and maintain its leverage ahead of 2027. The outcome of the November 27 polls will therefore be a significant indicator of ODM's ability to navigate its complex political reality—cooperating with the government while simultaneously defending its turf and preparing for future electoral battles as a distinct entity.