A Party at a Crossroads

NAIROBI – In the wake of the death of political titan Raila Odinga on October 15, 2025, his elder brother and successor, Dr. Oburu Oginga, is moving swiftly to consolidate his leadership of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) by forming a loyal inner circle. This strategic maneuver, confirmed by reports from Nation Media Group on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, is a direct response to escalating factionalism within the party that threatens its unity and future direction.

The core of the internal conflict revolves around the party's participation in a "broad-based government" arrangement with President William Ruto's administration. This pact, initiated by Raila Odinga and President Ruto on March 7, 2025, has split the party's leadership into two camps. One faction advocates for continued cooperation, arguing it brings stability and development, while the other demands a return to ODM's traditional role as a robust opposition force.

The New Power Centre

Dr. Oginga, the 82-year-old Siaya Senator, was formally ratified as the new Party Leader by ODM's National Governing Council on Thursday, November 13, 2025. His inner circle reportedly includes key figures such as Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, who was endorsed as National Chairperson, and Deputy Party Leaders including Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi. This team is tasked with navigating the party through its most significant transition in its 20-year history and countering dissenting voices that have grown more prominent since Raila Odinga's passing.

Dr. Oginga has publicly stated his intention to lead the party into government in the 2027 general election, declaring he will not lead ODM into the opposition. In an interview on October 30, 2025, he asserted that any future coalition negotiation must secure the party no less than the Deputy President's seat. This stance signals a definitive strategic shift, aiming to leverage ODM's substantial political base for a share of executive power.

The Rival Faction and Family Rifts

The move to centralize power comes amid open challenges to Dr. Oginga's leadership, most notably from within the Odinga family itself. East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP Winnie Odinga, daughter of the late Raila Odinga, has publicly questioned the current leadership's capacity to manage the complex relationship with the government. During the party's 20th-anniversary celebrations in Mombasa on Friday, November 14, 2025, she alleged a plot to "sell" the party and called for a National Delegates Convention (NDC) to allow members to determine its future course.

These sentiments are reportedly echoed by other influential figures like Siaya Governor James Orengo, who has dismissed the push for a deeper coalition with President Ruto's party as "idiotic." This faction fears that the broad-based government arrangement will dilute ODM's identity and effectively lead to its absorption by the ruling UDA party. Tensions within the Odinga family are also palpable, with some reports suggesting a preference for an alternative leader like Kisumu Governor Anyang' Nyong'o to guide the party. An insider quoted by the Daily Nation on November 19, 2025, confirmed that friction between the two sides of the family has existed for a long time but was managed by Raila's presence.

Implications for Kenya's Politics

The power struggle within ODM has profound implications for Kenyan politics. For two decades, ODM has been the country's largest and most resilient opposition party. A fractured or weakened ODM could significantly alter the political calculus ahead of the 2027 elections, potentially leaving President Ruto with a less formidable opposition. The internal debate is fundamentally about the soul of the party: whether to maintain its legacy of opposition and advocacy for social justice or to embrace a new era of cooperation and power-sharing.

As Dr. Oburu Oginga works to steady the ship and fend off internal rivals, his leadership will be tested. He faces the dual challenge of preserving his brother's formidable legacy while charting a new course in a political landscape irrevocably altered by his absence. The outcome of this internal battle will not only determine the future of one of Kenya's most significant political movements but will also shape the nature of the country's governance and democratic opposition for years to come.