Ngunjiri Wambugu Explains Raila’s Tactics to Stay Relevant Ahead of 2027

Nyeri, Kenya — September 25, 2025

Former MP Ngunjiri Wambugu has weighed in on Raila Odinga’s repeated hints about whether ODM will field a candidate in 2027, suggesting the strategy is less about contesting and more about maintaining political relevance within the so-called “broad-based arrangement” with President William Ruto’s coalition.

The Latest

• Speaking in Nyeri County, Wambugu said that Raila’s public flirtations with running in 2027 serve to keep ODM in the spotlight and preserve negotiating leverage.

• “It is a strategy — not necessarily a commitment. He wants to ensure he and his party remain relevant in the evolving political arithmetic,” Wambugu stated.

• He said that by keeping open the possibility of a candidature, Raila can oscillate between alliance and opposition roles depending on how political terrain shifts, thus positioning ODM as a kingmaker rather than a vanquished ally.

Context & Background

• Raila’s recent remarks in Machakos — where he clarified that ODM has not formally decided whether to field a candidate — have fueled speculation about his long-term strategy.

• ODM is currently allied (or aligned) with UDA under the broad-based government arrangement, though internal tensions over identity, autonomy and future direction persist.

• Political analysts view the upcoming by-elections and cross-party endorsements (such as ODM backing UDA’s candidate in Malava) as early tests of how fluid alliances will be in the 2027 contests.

Political Logic: Why This Tactic?

1. Negotiation leverage

   By keeping the option open, Raila retains bargaining power: he is not seen as fully folded into Ruto’s coalition nor as fully in opposition.

2. Maintaining public attention

   In politics, visibility matters. Hints of candidacy draw media coverage, public curiosity, and debate — all of which reinforce relevance.

3. Internal cohesion tool

   Suggesting a possible candidacy can reassure factions within ODM — especially those who fear the party might lose identity by merging too fully with UDA.

4. Flexibility in pivoting

   If the coalition alliance becomes strained or unpopular, ODM could reposition itself as an independent force again. Conversely, if things are favourable, it can remain aligned without fully surrendering brand or autonomy.

Risks & Pushbacks

• Perception of ambiguity: Some may view Raila’s hints as fence-sitting or indecisiveness, which could erode trust among voters.

• Alienating partners: If UDA or coalition partners see ODM’s ambiguity as lack of commitment, they may challenge its loyalty or strategic utility.

• Internal dissent: Some party cadres who desire clarity or firm direction may feel unsettled by repeated signals without definitive stances.

• Vulnerability to rivals: In the space created by ambiguity, opponents could seize narrative control, portraying Raila as politically opportunistic or insincere.