NAIROBI — The giant tree has fallen, the forest is shaking, but the path forward is not lost. That was the definitive message from National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi yesterday as he moved to quell growing anxiety within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) regarding its strategy for the 2027 General Election.

Speaking against a backdrop of intensifying succession jockeying following the death of party patriarch Raila Odinga, Mbadi—a veteran of the movement and now a key figure in President William Ruto’s broad-based government—was categorical: The noise is temporary, but the authority is absolute. The compass for 2027, he declared, rests firmly in the hands of Dr. Oburu Oginga.

The 'Compass' in the Chaos

“ODM is not drifting,” Mbadi asserted during an interview in Nairobi. “We are in a process. When a big tree falls, the ecosystem shakes. But let no one mistake debate for fragmentation. As it stands today, the party leader is Dr. Oburu Oginga. He—and only he—will announce the direction ODM takes in 2027.”

The Treasury CS’s intervention comes at a critical juncture. Since the party’s National Governing Council endorsed the Siaya Senator as Party Leader on November 13, whispers of a power struggle have grown louder. Factions aligned with younger leaders like Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi have been testing the waters, eager to claim the mantle of the Luo community’s kingpin.

Mbadi, however, sought to draw a clear line between personal ambition and institutional direction. While acknowledging that the “broad-based” deal with the Kenya Kwanza administration has blurred the traditional lines of opposition, he insisted that the party’s structural integrity remains intact.

• The Hierarchy: Mbadi emphasized that the party constitution vests the power to negotiate coalitions solely in the Party Leader.
• The Ambition: “Oburu is our leader, but that does not kill our ambitions,” Mbadi noted. “If I decide to run for President in 2032, that is my right. But the vehicle’s direction is the leader’s call.”
• The Strategy: The party is currently balancing its identity as a partner in government while trying to retain its grassroots fire.

The 2027 Calculus: Government or Opposition?

For the average Kenyan, this internal maneuvering is more than just palace intrigue; it dictates the stability of the political landscape. With key ODM figures now sitting in the Cabinet—managing portfolios from the Treasury to Energy—the party’s decision to either stick with President Ruto or break away will fundamentally alter the economic and security environment ahead of the next polls.

Dr. Oburu himself has previously drawn a “red line” for any future alliance. In a candid interview last month, the Siaya Senator stated that ODM would not settle for anything less than the Deputy Presidency in 2027, warning that the party “will never return to opposition.”

“Raila always said ODM must be in government,” Oburu was quoted saying. “Being in opposition was never an option again.”

This stance complicates matters for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and the Mt. Kenya voting bloc, creating a high-stakes chess game that Mbadi is now helping to manage. By reinforcing Oburu’s authority, Mbadi is effectively signaling to potential rebels that any deal with President Ruto will be cut by the elders, not the young Turks.

A Legacy in Transition

Analysts view Mbadi’s remarks as a strategic attempt to stabilize the “Raila Odinga base”—a voting bloc of millions that has been the engine of Kenyan opposition politics for three decades. Without a singular, charismatic figurehead, the risk of voter apathy or regional splintering is real.

“The transition was bound to be emotionally and politically charged,” Mbadi admitted, referencing the void left by the former Prime Minister. “But the institutional memory lies with Oburu. He is the bridge.”

As the political dust settles, the message to the rank and file is clear: You may have ambitions, but do not mistake the silence of the leadership for weakness. The road to 2027 is being paved, and for now, Oburu Oginga holds the map.