Humanitarian Crisis Erupts After 18-Month Siege

GENEVA – More than 62,000 people have fled El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, following its capture by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Saturday, 25 October 2025, according to the United Nations. The city’s fall, after a brutal 18-month siege, has unleashed a wave of atrocities, including summary executions, systematic rape, and ethnically targeted violence, prompting warnings of potential genocide from international observers.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) confirmed on Friday, 31 October 2025, that its field teams estimated 62,263 people were displaced from the city and its surrounding villages between Saturday, 26 October, and Tuesday, 29 October 2025. Many of the displaced have undertaken a perilous journey of approximately 80 kilometers on foot to the town of Tawila, arriving malnourished, traumatized, and sick. Eujin Byun of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reported to the BBC on Friday that every child arriving was suffering from malnutrition and that the agency was struggling to provide sufficient food and shelter.

Widespread Atrocities and Allegations of War Crimes

Survivors and international bodies have provided harrowing accounts of the violence that followed the RSF's takeover. The UN Human Rights Office stated on Friday, 31 October 2025, that it had received “horrendous accounts of summary executions, mass killings, rapes, attacks against humanitarian workers, looting, abductions and forced displacement.” Spokesperson Seif Magango noted these acts could amount to “numerous crimes under international law.”

Specific reports detail gruesome acts of violence. At least 25 women were allegedly gang-raped at a shelter for displaced people near El-Fasher University. In another incident, patients and civilians seeking refuge at the Saudi Maternity Hospital were reportedly executed. Human Rights Watch verified multiple videos showing RSF fighters executing apparent civilians and abusing injured individuals. Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab reported that satellite imagery analysis showed evidence consistent with mass killings and a “systematic and deliberate process of ethnic cleansing” targeting the Fur, Zaghawa, Berti, and other non-Arab communities.

The RSF, which evolved from the Janjaweed militias accused of genocide in Darfur two decades ago, has denied the killings are ethnically motivated. Amidst mounting international pressure, the paramilitary group announced on Thursday, 30 October 2025, that it had arrested several of its own fighters for “violations.” This included a commander known as Abu Lulu, who appeared in multiple social media videos committing summary executions. However, Sudanese analysts and activists have dismissed the arrests as a “PR stunt” intended to deflect from systemic abuses.

Strategic Shift with Regional Implications for Kenya

The capture of El-Fasher is a major strategic victory for the RSF, giving the paramilitary group, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, effective control over the entire Darfur region. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, confirmed its withdrawal from the city on Monday, 27 October 2025, stating the decision was made to spare the remaining civilian population from further violence. This development effectively signals a de facto partition of Sudan, with the RSF controlling the west and the SAF holding territory in the east.

This territorial shift poses a significant threat to regional stability, a key concern for Kenya and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The collapse of central authority in Darfur could fuel cross-border arms trafficking and refugee flows into neighbouring countries like Chad, further destabilizing the fragile Sahel region.

Kenya has previously played a leading role in regional peace initiatives for Sudan. However, an IGAD committee led by President William Ruto was dissolved in May 2025 after the SAF government accused Nairobi of bias towards the RSF. Responsibility for mediation has since reverted to IGAD and the African Union, who now face a more fragmented and volatile conflict landscape. The escalating humanitarian crisis and the profound shift in the conflict's dynamics will require renewed and urgent diplomatic engagement from regional partners, including Kenya, to prevent a wider catastrophe.