Majority of Kenyans Oppose Broad-Based Government, Poll Finds

Nairobi, Kenya — 2025-09-11 14:00 EAT. A survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA Research) shows 64 percent of Kenyans now oppose the Broad-Based Government (BBG) initiative between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga. Support stands at 29 percent, with 7 percent undecided. Citizens cite cost of living, economic decline, and weak accountability as key concerns. 

1) The Latest

• What happened now: The TIFA poll, conducted between August 23 and September 3, 2025, on a sample of 2,023 registered voters across 47 counties, indicates growing disapproval of the Ruto-Raila Broad-Based Government—64 percent oppose it, 29 percent support, and 7 percent are undecided. 

• Why it matters: The results suggest the BBG has failed to gain broad public trust and may face political risk ahead of the 2027 elections. Opposition is also strong among young Kenyans. 

• Status: Confirmed; findings published recently. 

2) Context in Brief

• The Broad-Based Government was announced in July 2024 as a partnership between UDA and ODM to increase political stability and national unity after protests and widespread discontent. 

• This is not the first poll: in May 2025, TIFA found 54 percent opposed the BBG, with 22 percent supporting. The new poll shows opposition has increased while support has modestly risen. 

• Key grievances driving opposition include rising cost of living, high taxes, corruption, and perceived failure of government to deliver on economic promises. 

3) Law, Policy, and Process

• Mandate: TIFA Research is a polling firm; the BBG is a political initiative under the cooperation pact between UDA and ODM.

• Policies: No legal or constitutional requirement mandates a broad-based government; it is political design.

• What should happen next:

  • Government may need to engage in public consultations or policy adjustments to address citizen concerns.

  • Strengthen transparency on how BBG is delivering promised outcomes (jobs, cost relief, anti-corruption).

  • Political opponents and civil society may use these findings to press for accountability.

4) Voices and Stakeholders

• TIFA Research / Maggie Ireri (CEO): Highlighted growing opposition from 54 percent in May to 64 percent now, and a smaller but rising support base. 

• Respondents (public): Young people especially critical; in many counties support remains below 40 percent even where government is strong. 

• Analysts / Political Commentators: Suggest BBG seen as elite arrangement; unless it delivers tangible benefits people may still reject it. (Implied in poll commentary.) 

5) Evidence & Data Box

6) Risks and Implications

• Political risk: Unless BBG delivers visible economic relief, this opposition could hurt UDA, ODM, or government standing in 2027.

• Governance concern: Citizens may increasingly distrust political agreements as symbolic rather than transformative.

• Potential instability: High dissatisfaction may fuel protests or unrest, especially among youths.

7) What We Don’t Know Yet

• Which demographic groups (region, income) have shifted hardest in opinion.

• Specific policies within BBG that citizens want changed.

• Whether opposition will translate into political alignment or voting behaviour in 2027.

• How the government will respond to this shift in public sentiment.

8) Timeline

• May 2025: TIFA poll found 54 percent opposed BBG, 22 percent in support. 

• Aug 23–Sep 3, 2025: Current poll period. 

• September 2025: Publication of survey results. 

9) What to Watch

• Government’s messaging and policy changes in response to poll.

• Whether BBG yields any new policy deliverables (cost relief, jobs, anti-corruption) to sway opinion.

• Poll trends leading up to 2027: tracking whether opposition remains or softens.