President Andry Rajoelina of Madagascar announced on Sunday, October 12, 2025, that an attempted coup d'état was in progress, a day after members of an elite army unit joined anti-government demonstrations that have rocked the country for weeks. The president's office stated it wished to inform the nation and the international community of "an attempt to seize power illegally and by force, contrary to the constitution and to democratic principles."

The declaration followed reports that soldiers from the Army Personnel and Services Administration Corps (CAPSAT), a unit instrumental in Rajoelina's 2009 rise to power, had joined youth-led protests on Saturday, October 11, 2025. These protests, initially sparked by frequent power outages and water shortages, have evolved into a broader movement demanding Rajoelina's resignation and an end to alleged government corruption.

Historical and Political Context

Madagascar has a history of political instability, with the military often playing a pivotal role in transitions of power since its independence in 1960. President Rajoelina himself first came to prominence as the transitional leader after a 2009 coup and was subsequently elected president in 2018, then re-elected for a second term in 2023.

The current unrest, which began on Thursday, September 25, 2025, represents the most significant challenge to Rajoelina's rule since his re-election. The protests are largely led by a group identifying itself as "Gen Z Madagascar," a youth-driven movement inspired by similar demonstrations globally. This group, along with civic organisations and trade unions, has called for a radical overhaul of the political system.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

In response to the initial demonstrations, President Rajoelina dissolved his government on Monday, September 29, 2025, and appointed a new Prime Minister, Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo, a military general, on Monday, October 6, 2025. However, these concessions failed to appease the protesters, who continued to demand the president's resignation. On Sunday, October 12, 2025, the Senate announced the dismissal of its president, Richard Ravalomanana, a former gendarmerie general, meeting another demand of the protesters.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

The CAPSAT unit, based on the outskirts of the capital Antananarivo, declared on Sunday, October 12, 2025, that it had taken control of the country's security operations and would coordinate all branches of the military. They also appointed General Demosthene Pikulas as the new head of the army. A unit of the paramilitary gendarmerie also reportedly broke ranks with the government, stating its role was to protect people, not to defend the interests of a few individuals.

Colonel Michael Randrianirina, a CAPSAT commander, stated that his troops had exchanged fire with security forces attempting to quell protests in Antananarivo, resulting in the death of one of his soldiers. He also publicly called for the president, prime minister, and gendarmerie commanders to step down.

Evidence and Data

The United Nations reported that at least 22 people have died and dozens have been injured in the clashes since the protests began. The Malagasy government has disputed this figure, stating there were 12 confirmed deaths, all identified as looters and vandals.

Risks and Implications

The escalating political crisis has prompted international concern. Air France has suspended all flights to Madagascar until at least Tuesday, October 14, 2025, while Emirates has suspended flights until further notice. The United Kingdom has advised against all but essential travel to the island. The African Union has urged all parties to exercise calm and restraint.

Unknowns and Controversies

While President Rajoelina's office stated he remained in the country and was managing national affairs, his exact whereabouts on Sunday, October 12, 2025, were not publicly disclosed. There are also ongoing efforts by the president to differentiate the agenda of the coup leaders from that of the Gen Z movement, with Rajoelina reportedly denouncing the officers' ambitions as corrupt and distinct from the youth's demands.

Timeline and Next Steps

• Thursday, September 25, 2025: Youth-led protests begin over power and water shortages.
• Monday, September 29, 2025: President Rajoelina dissolves his government.
• Monday, October 6, 2025: General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo appointed Prime Minister.
• Saturday, October 11, 2025: Elite CAPSAT army unit joins protests.
• Sunday, October 12, 2025: President Rajoelina declares an attempted coup; CAPSAT announces control of military and appoints new army chief.

What to Watch

The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Madagascar's political landscape. Observers will be closely watching for further military movements, the government's response to the CAPSAT's declarations, and the sustained momentum of the youth-led protests. The international community's role in mediating a peaceful resolution will also be a key factor.