Maanzo Confident DCP Will Dominate Upcoming By-Elections

Kakamega, Kenya — September 23, 2024, 20:00 EAT.

Makueni County Senator Dan Maanzo has expressed confidence that the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) will emerge victorious in the upcoming by-elections, predicting a majority win in the mini polls scheduled for November 27, 2024.

The Latest

Speaking during a live interview on a local TV station, Maanzo said DCP is strategically positioned to capture most of the vacant seats in the by-elections, citing the party’s growing presence and grassroots mobilisation across key counties.

“Until these by-elections are done, I doubt if the houses will have any numbers. Different political parties have to go to the ground to make sure that they get these seats. We have a DCP with quite a number of seats,” the senator stated.

The by-elections will fill multiple vacancies left by resignations, deaths, or court nullifications, with campaigns expected to intensify in the coming weeks.

Context in Brief

• The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) has recently gained political traction after attracting defectors from established parties.

• Deputy Party Leader Rigathi Gachagua has already announced that DCP will not issue direct nominations, insisting that all tickets will be contested to ensure fairness and internal democracy.

• Analysts view the November 27 mini polls as a litmus test for both ruling and opposition coalitions ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Law, Policy, and Process

• Electoral Law: The by-elections will be conducted under Article 101(4) of the Constitution, which mandates the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to hold elections within 90 days of a vacancy declaration.

• IEBC Role: The commission is responsible for gazetting dates, clearing candidates, and overseeing campaign financing compliance.

• Timelines: The electoral calendar for the mini polls was published in September 2024, with nominations closing in early October.

Voices and Stakeholders

• Sen. Dan Maanzo: Expressed optimism that DCP’s strategy and candidate selection will give it an edge over rivals.

• Hon. Rigathi Gachagua (DCP Deputy Leader): “No direct nominations in DCP — all tickets must be contested,” he said earlier this week, signalling a shift towards internal party democracy.

• Political Analysts: Suggest DCP’s performance will determine whether it can challenge established parties in 2027.

Evidence & Data Box

Risks & Implications

• Political Realignments: Strong DCP performance could reshape alliances ahead of 2027.

• Legislative Balance: Wins may influence voting blocs in both national and county assemblies.

• Voter Turnout: Analysts warn low turnout could skew results in closely contested areas.

What We Don’t Know Yet

• Whether major coalitions like Kenya Kwanza or Azimio will field joint candidates to counter DCP.

• The role of independent candidates in swing constituencies.

• Potential petitions challenging IEBC’s management of the mini polls.

Timeline

• Sept 2024: IEBC gazettes by-election date.

• Oct 2024: Party nominations and candidate clearance.

• Nov 27, 2024: Mini polls conducted across multiple counties.

What to Watch

• DCP’s final list of candidates and campaign financing strategies.

• IEBC preparations and security arrangements in hotspot constituencies.

• Voter turnout projections and diaspora engagement efforts.