On paper, 2026 should be the year the Victorian Liberals reclaim power. They face a tired, third-term Labor government burdened by a staggering $192 billion debt forecast. They have a fresh, 35-year-old leader in Jess Wilson. Yet, they seem determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The resignation of star recruit Sam Groth—the former tennis pro turned MP for Nepean—has thrown the party into turmoil just months before the November election. Groth cited "infighting" as his reason for quitting, a damning indictment of a party that cannot stop warring with itself.

The Self-Destruct Button

Wilson was meant to be the face of a modern, centrist Liberal party. Instead, she is putting out fires started by her own team. The loss of Groth removes a key moderate ally and exposes the deep factional rifts between the religious right and the urban liberals.

• The Debt Crisis: The Labor government is vulnerable. Victoria's debt is ballooning, and voters are weary. But an opposition that looks unstable is rarely voted in. Voters prefer the devil they know to a circus.
• The "Teal" Threat: In affluent seats, the Liberals are not just fighting Labor; they are fighting "Teal" independents who appeal to socially progressive fiscal conservatives. Infighting only pushes these voters away.
• The Verdict: Unless Wilson can unify her troops immediately, the Liberals risk another four years in the wilderness. In politics, disunity is death.

A Warning to Politicians

The Victorian saga is a universal lesson: policy matters, but unity matters more. You cannot govern a state if you cannot govern your own party room.