GLOBAL - Leaked United States military planning documents have revealed a strategy for the long-term division of Gaza, proposing a future where the territory is split into a reconstructed "green zone" under Israeli and international military authority and a "red zone" largely left in ruins. The plans, first reported by The Guardian on Friday, 14th November 2025 EAT, and based on confidential documents and sources briefed on the American strategy, outline a scenario that diverges sharply from publicly stated goals of a unified, self-governing Palestinian territory.

According to the documents, foreign and Israeli forces would jointly secure the green zone, which would be the focus of initial reconstruction efforts. This area would be separated from the devastated red zone by a so-called "yellow line," representing the current extent of Israeli military control. An unnamed US official acknowledged the difficulty of the plan, stating, "Ideally you would want to make it all whole, right? But that’s aspirational... It’s going to take some time. It’s not going to be easy."

The revelations have ignited concerns over the future of Palestinian self-determination and the stability of any peace agreement. These plans are part of a wider, fluid US-led effort to establish an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) for Gaza, a key component of a 20-point peace plan brokered by President Donald Trump's administration. However, the proposal for a physically divided Gaza, with one part managed by foreign powers and the other neglected, raises serious questions about Washington's commitment to a viable two-state solution.

Implications for International Norms and Kenya

For Kenya and other African nations, the concept of externally imposed territorial divisions carries significant historical weight. The strategy, if implemented, could set a precedent in modern conflict resolution that challenges the principles of sovereignty and non-interference—tenets that have been central to the African Union's charter. The AU has consistently advocated for the rights of the Palestinian people to an independent and sovereign state, a position reaffirmed during multiple summits and at the International Court of Justice.

Furthermore, the plan's reliance on an "international force" directly intersects with Kenya's long-standing role as a significant contributor to global peacekeeping operations. Kenyan forces have participated in numerous UN and AU missions, including in Somalia (AMISOM/ATMIS) and South Sudan (UNMISS). While there is no indication of Kenyan involvement in the proposed ISF, the structure and mandate of such a force are of strategic interest. The US has reportedly suggested a core of European forces, but the plan's success hinges on broader international buy-in, which remains uncertain. A UN Security Council resolution to formally mandate the ISF faces opposition from Russia and China, who have raised concerns about the lack of a clear role for the Palestinian Authority and the composition of a proposed governing "Board of Peace."

A Chaotic and Shifting Diplomatic Landscape

The planning for post-war Gaza has been described as chaotic and improvised. The "green zone" proposal surfaced after a previous American concept for "alternative safe communities"—fenced-in camps for Palestinians—was reportedly abandoned. This rapid evolution in planning highlights the immense difficulty of forging a sustainable peace after more than two years of devastating conflict. The US has also been reportedly planning to establish a large military base near the Gaza border to support the ISF, a move that would signify a deeper, more direct American involvement in the region's security architecture.

Humanitarian organizations have expressed grave concerns about any plan that would formalize the displacement of nearly all of Gaza's two million residents into a designated "red zone" with no immediate prospect of reconstruction. Mediators have warned that such a divided reality could lead to a state of "not war but not peace," characterized by an entrenched occupation and the absence of genuine Palestinian self-rule.

As diplomatic negotiations continue at the United Nations, the future governance of Gaza remains precarious. The US and several Arab nations have issued joint statements supporting the peace plan as a viable path towards Palestinian statehood. However, the leaked details of a partitioned territory suggest a starkly different reality on the ground, one that could undermine the very foundation of a lasting peace and create a dangerous new precedent in international conflict management.