The upcoming Mbeere North parliamentary by-election on Thursday, November 27, 2025, has evolved from a local constituency contest into a significant political litmus test for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. The race is widely seen as a proxy battle between Prof. Kindiki and his predecessor, Rigathi Gachagua, placing considerable pressure on the Deputy President to secure a victory for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party in his political backyard.

The by-election was triggered by the appointment of the constituency's former Member of Parliament, Geoffrey Ruku, as the Cabinet Secretary for Public Service, Human Capital Development and Special Programmes in April 2025. Ruku, who was elected on a Democratic Party (DP) ticket in 2022, formally resigned from his parliamentary post on April 16, 2025, paving the way for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to declare the seat vacant.

The contest has become intensely personalized, with Prof. Kindiki leading the UDA campaign for their candidate, Leonard Wamuthende, while Gachagua has thrown his weight behind the Democratic Party's candidate, Newton Kariuki. Both national figures have invested significant political capital, camping in the constituency for days and leading aggressive campaigns. Analysts suggest the outcome could redefine political dynamics within the vote-rich Mt. Kenya region.

High-Stakes Contest

For Deputy President Kindiki, delivering the Mbeere North seat is crucial to cementing his authority and influence. He has framed the election as a choice between continued development under the current administration and what he terms the "vengeful politics" of his rivals. During a rally in Kivue on Sunday, November 23, 2025, Kindiki urged voters to support the UDA candidate to ensure the completion of ongoing government projects, including the tarmacking of the Siakago-Kanyuambora road. He has repeatedly stated that President William Ruto and the entire Kenya Kwanza coalition are fully behind Wamuthende.

Conversely, Gachagua and his allies are positioning the by-election as an opportunity for the electorate to express dissatisfaction with the government. The campaign has been marked by sharp rhetoric and accusations from both sides. UDA Chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire accused Gachagua's camp of planning violence to disrupt the polls, a claim she reported to Ishiara Police Station. Meanwhile, former Attorney General Justin Muturi, allied with Gachagua, wrote to the IEBC alleging a plot by state-backed operatives to intimidate voters and manipulate the outcome.

The Candidates and Local Dynamics

The race is considered tight, with recent opinion polls indicating a two-horse race. A Mizani Africa poll conducted between November 17 and 19 showed UDA's Leonard Wamuthende with a narrow lead of 44.6% against DP's Newton Kariuki, who polled at 42.4%, a figure within the survey's margin of error. The UDA party remains the most popular in the constituency at 38.9%.

Leonard Wamuthende, the UDA candidate, has pledged to continue the development agenda initiated by his predecessor, focusing on education bursaries, water projects, and infrastructure. Newton Kariuki, a well-known Benga musician turned politician, is leveraging his local popularity and grassroots connections. The election is set against a backdrop of local challenges, including water scarcity and the need for improved infrastructure, which residents hope their next representative will address.

IEBC Preparations and Security

The IEBC has assured residents of a free, fair, and credible election. Mbeere North Returning Officer John Kinyua confirmed on Monday, November 24, 2025, that all logistical and security arrangements are in place for the 55,124 registered voters across 134 polling stations. IEBC CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan stated that security has been bolstered, with at least two police officers deployed to each polling station and additional reinforcements from neighbouring counties. The commission will use the 2022 voter register for the by-election. The official campaign period concluded at 6 p.m. EAT on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, ahead of the Thursday vote.