Political Alliance Under Strain

NAIROBI – A sharp disagreement has erupted between senior figures in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) over the nature of their cooperation in the upcoming by-elections, signaling significant friction within the ‘broad-based’ government arrangement. The public dispute pits Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki against ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who have offered conflicting interpretations of their parties' pact.

The controversy ignited on Friday, October 31, 2025, when Prof. Kindiki, speaking in Homa Bay County, declared that UDA and ODM would jointly support candidates under a unified "broad-based" banner in the mini-polls scheduled for Thursday, November 27, 2025. "We have all agreed to work together and fully support all our broad-based candidates in the coming by-elections," Prof. Kindiki stated at an event in Oyugis. He specified that this reciprocal support was a direct outcome of the working agreement signed by President William Ruto and the late ODM leader, Raila Odinga.

According to Prof. Kindiki, the arrangement would see UDA support ODM candidates in Kasipul, Ugunja, and Magarini constituencies. In return, ODM would back UDA aspirants in Malava, Banisa, Mbeere North, and for the Baringo Senate seat. During his Homa Bay address, he explicitly endorsed the ODM candidate for Kasipul, Boyd Were, as the official candidate of the "broad-based government."

ODM Pushes Back on Joint Identity

However, ODM’s top brass swiftly and publicly contradicted the Interior CS. On Saturday, November 1, 2025, while addressing party delegates in Mombasa, Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna categorically rejected the “broad-based candidate” terminology. Mr. Sifuna, a Nairobi Senator, warned that the phrase was misleading and could confuse ODM’s support base, potentially costing the party victories in its strongholds.

“Broad-based is not a party; that means it has no candidates,” Mr. Sifuna asserted. He clarified the scope of the political pact, emphasizing that it was a working arrangement, not a formal coalition. “I am the one who wrote that ODM-UDA agreement, and I know what is in it. This agreement does not constitute a coalition agreement with UDA,” he stated, adding that the late Raila Odinga’s instruction was for ODM to maintain its distinct political identity. “Baba told us to keep our identity. My colour and symbol are orange,” he reiterated.

The public discord highlights a potential rift within ODM itself. During the event with Prof. Kindiki in Homa Bay, Governor Gladys Wanga, who also serves as the ODM National Chairperson, appeared to endorse the joint approach. “In the coming by-elections, we are supporting all the broad-based candidates because we have agreed that we will back all our candidates in the polls,” Governor Wanga was quoted as saying.

Implications for Kenyan Voters and 2027

This public sparring lays bare the complexities of the post-Odinga political landscape and the delicate balance required to manage the UDA-ODM partnership. The by-elections, set to fill vacancies created by deaths, court rulings, and public appointments, are seen as a critical test of both parties' strengths and the viability of their working relationship. The contested seats include parliamentary positions in Kasipul, Ugunja, Malava, Mbeere North, Banisa, and Magarini, alongside the Baringo Senate seat and several Member of County Assembly (MCA) wards.

Mr. Sifuna’s forceful pushback is viewed by analysts as an attempt to protect ODM's brand and autonomy, preventing it from being subsumed into the ruling UDA-led administration ahead of the 2027 General Election. He cautioned party members against using the by-election campaigns to drum up support for President Ruto's potential second term, stating that ODM has not yet made a decision on its 2027 presidential strategy. The differing messages from senior leaders in both camps present a confusing picture to voters in the affected regions and raise questions about the long-term strategic alignment of Kenya's two dominant political formations.