The Shifting Burden

NAIROBI – Kenya is confronting a profound public health crisis as non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have officially become the leading cause of death in the nation. According to the 2024 Kenya Vital Statistics Report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), NCDs accounted for a staggering 61.7% of all deaths recorded in health facilities, a sharp increase from 52.4% the previous year. This epidemiological shift signals a silent epidemic that is straining the country's healthcare infrastructure and threatening its economic development.

The primary culprits in this surge are cardiovascular diseases (like heart attacks and strokes), various forms of cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. Cancer, in particular, has shown a dramatic and worrying rise, climbing from the fifth leading cause of death in 2021 to the second in 2024, and is now the top cause of death among Kenyan women. Data from the Ministry of Health indicates that NCDs are responsible for approximately 41% of all deaths in Kenya and nearly half of all hospital admissions. This double burden of disease—fighting both chronic illnesses and persistent infectious diseases—presents a formidable challenge for policymakers and healthcare providers.

The Crushing Economic Cost

The economic consequences of this health crisis are devastating for both individual households and the national economy. Research shows that NCDs reduce household income by an average of 28.64%, significantly more than the 13.63% reduction caused by general ailments. Households with a member suffering from an NCD are over 51% more likely to face catastrophic health expenditures, which often forces families to sell assets or fall into deep debt to cover medical bills.

The cost of treatment is a significant barrier to care. For example, treating cervical cancer can range from KES 172,000 to over KES 1.25 million, while breast cancer treatment can cost between KES 175,200 and KES 2.48 million. Even in public facilities, annual medication for hypertension can cost up to KES 27,500 ($234), a prohibitive sum for many Kenyans, given the average household expenditure per adult is around KES 48,500 ($413) per year. A 2016 analysis estimated that the total economic loss from just seven major NCDs was KES 230 billion and projected this could rise to KES 607 billion annually by 2030 if urgent preventative action is not taken.

Drivers and Government Response

The rise in NCDs is closely linked to several risk factors, including tobacco use, harmful alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and unhealthy diets. Rapid urbanization has led to more sedentary lifestyles and increased consumption of processed foods high in salt, sugar, and unhealthy fats. Studies show that over 40% of Kenyan adults may have hypertension, with many remaining undiagnosed. Furthermore, a significant portion of the population does not meet the World Health Organization's recommendation for physical activity.

In response, the Kenyan government, through the Ministry of Health, has launched the National Strategic Plan for the Prevention and Control of Non-Communicable Diseases 2021-2026. This strategy aims to halt and reverse the rising burden of NCDs through a multi-sectoral approach that focuses on strengthening primary healthcare for early screening, promoting healthy lifestyles, and ensuring access to affordable care. The plan covers a wide range of conditions, including cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, mental health, and chronic respiratory diseases, and addresses key risk factors. However, experts note that while policies are in place, implementation and coverage remain low, and a significant financing gap persists.

The Path Forward

As Kenya prepares for the National NCD Conference on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, there is a clear consensus that business as usual is no longer an option. Health experts and organizations like Amref Health Africa are calling for the scaling up of cost-effective interventions, known as "best buys." These include raising taxes on tobacco and alcohol, reducing salt and trans-fats in the food supply, promoting physical activity, and integrating NCD screening and management into primary healthcare services. The challenge of late diagnosis remains a major hurdle, with many patients seeking care only when complications have become severe and treatment is more expensive and less effective.

Under the leadership of Health Cabinet Secretary Susan Nakhumicha Wafula, the government has emphasized its commitment to achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC), which is central to tackling the NCD crisis. Successfully confronting this silent epidemic will require a sustained, multi-faceted effort involving robust government financing, public awareness campaigns, and stronger primary health systems to shift the focus from costly treatment to affordable, widespread prevention.