The Enduring Influence of the 'Old Guard'

Kenya's political landscape remains anchored by a cadre of veteran leaders whose careers have spanned decades, shaping the nation's trajectory since the late 20th century. Figures such as Raila Odinga, who entered active politics in the 1970s, have been central to the country's governance and opposition movements for generations. Many current senior politicians began their careers in the 1990s, a period that marked Kenya's return to multiparty democracy. For instance, Adan Keynan, currently the longest-serving Member of Parliament in the 13th Parliament, first joined elective politics in 1997. Similarly, Siaya Senator James Orengo, first elected in 1980, has been a fixture in parliament for multiple terms. This longevity has created a political class with deep-rooted networks, significant financial leverage, and entrenched ethnic support bases, making them formidable players in every election cycle.

A Nation Divided by Demographics

The persistence of this old guard presents a stark contrast to Kenya's demographic reality. With a median age of just 20 years, the country is overwhelmingly young. According to a 2019 census, 75% of the population is under the age of 35. Yet, the average age of a Member of Parliament in the 13th Parliament is 49.9 years, highlighting a significant generational gap between the country's citizens and its legislators. This disconnect is at the heart of a growing national debate, with analysts and citizens questioning whether a leadership shaped by past political battles can effectively address the priorities of a 21st-century electorate. The youth-led protests of 2024 and 2025 against fiscal policies were seen by many as a direct challenge to this established order, signaling widespread frustration with a system perceived as exclusionary.

Economic Pressures and the Call for New Ideas

The debate is intensified by pressing economic challenges. According to the Federation of Kenya Employers (FKE), the youth unemployment rate for those aged 15-34 stands at a staggering 67%. The World Bank has also highlighted insufficient job creation and low wages for youth as critical structural challenges for Kenya. With up to 800,000 young people entering the job market annually, the pressure for innovative economic solutions is immense. Proponents of a generational shift argue that the political 'old guard' is too invested in a system of patronage and ethnic mobilization, which historically has stifled meritocracy and failed to foster a dynamic, inclusive economy. The country's high public debt, with interest payments consuming about a third of tax revenue, further constrains the government's ability to invest in future-oriented sectors. Critics contend that fresh leadership is required to move beyond personality-driven politics and tackle systemic issues like corruption and the high cost of living.

The High Cost of Entry for a New Generation

Despite the clear demand for new voices, significant barriers prevent younger candidates from effectively competing for political office. The cost of running a campaign in Kenya is exceptionally high, creating a system that favors the wealthy and well-connected. A 2021 report by the Westminister Foundation of Democracy and the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy revealed the prohibitive expenses: winning a Senate seat in 2017 cost an average of KSh35.5 million, a Woman Representative seat KSh22.8 million, and a Member of Parliament seat KSh18.1 million. These funds are often raised from personal savings or close allies, as less than 20% of candidates receive financial support from their political parties. This financial barrier effectively locks out many qualified youth and women, perpetuating the dominance of the established political class who have had decades to accumulate resources and build patronage networks. Furthermore, party structures are often rigid, favoring loyalty and incumbency over new ideas, making it difficult for outsiders to secure nominations for viable seats.

Implications for Kenya's Future

The ongoing tension between the enduring political establishment and the aspirations of a youthful population places Kenya at a critical juncture. Maintaining the status quo risks alienating the nation's largest demographic, potentially fueling further social and political instability. The risk, as some analysts have noted, is turning Kenya's demographic dividend into a demographic curse. Conversely, a meaningful transition to a new generation of leaders could unlock fresh perspectives on economic policy, governance, and national unity. However, this requires more than just a change of faces; it necessitates structural reforms within political parties to reduce financial barriers, promote meritocracy, and ensure that leadership reflects the country's diverse and youthful population. As the nation looks toward the next election cycle, the choice between continuity and change will profoundly shape its stability and prosperity for years to come.