Cotton Farmers Grapple with Low Productivity Amid Expansion

Across Kenya's cotton-growing regions, farmers are dedicating more land to cottonseed cultivation, yet the expected increase in output remains elusive. This paradox of expanding acreage coupled with stagnant or declining yields is raising significant concerns about the sector's productivity and the financial viability for farmers. For instance, in Elgeyo Marakwet County, farmers like Ronny Kibet and Faith Jerono illustrate the struggle to achieve higher yields despite their efforts to expand farming areas.

Historical Context and Policy Shifts

Cotton farming in Kenya has a rich history, introduced during the colonial era to bolster the agricultural sector. The industry experienced a boom in the early 1980s, with annual lint production reaching up to 70,000 bales (approximately 12,950 metric tonnes) by 1984, making the textile-apparel industry a leading manufacturing activity and employer. However, this prosperity was short-lived. The liberalisation of the sector in the 1990s, coupled with the withdrawal of government support for credit and inputs, led to a significant decline in production. By 1995, lint production had plummeted to about 20,000 bales (approximately 3,700 metric tonnes), a level from which it has struggled to recover.

The government's role in the cotton industry has evolved. Initially, the Kenya Cotton Lint and Seed Marketing Board (later the Cotton Board of Kenya) controlled production, processing, and marketing, providing guaranteed prices and inputs to farmers. The disbandment of this board contributed to the industry's underperformance. In 2006, the Cotton Development Authority (CODA) was established to promote, coordinate, regulate, and direct the cotton industry. CODA's mandate includes enforcing quality standards, promoting research, providing extension services, facilitating market access, and encouraging value addition.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

Kenya's Vision 2030 identifies cotton as a key sub-sector with the potential to benefit eight million people in arid and semi-arid areas. The government has demonstrated strong policy support for increasing cotton production, including the approval of commercial cultivation of biotech (Bt) cotton in December 2019. This decision followed years of trials and stakeholder consultations, aiming to revitalise the industry and address pest challenges. The Cotton Industry Development Bill, 2023, currently under parliamentary consideration, seeks to establish a Cotton Industry Development Board to regulate production, processing, marketing, and distribution, and to promote a globally competitive industry.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

The cotton value chain involves numerous stakeholders, including farmers, ginners, spinners, weavers, apparel manufacturers, researchers, and extension service providers. Approximately 140,000 smallholder farmers, primarily in Western, Nyanza, Central, Rift Valley, Eastern, and Coast provinces, cultivate cotton on holdings of less than one hectare. These farmers often face challenges such as harsh weather conditions and insufficient water. Testimonies from farmers like Wilson Haya and Consolata Anyango in Ol Karia Valley, working with Rift Valley Products, highlight the potential for increased yields and earnings with proper training and market access. However, issues like unscrupulous buyers offering low prices have historically plagued farmers.

Evidence and Data

Kenya has an estimated 350,000 to 384,500 hectares of land suitable for cotton production, with a potential to produce 50,000 to 200,000 tonnes of seed cotton annually. However, only about 10% of this potential land is currently utilised. The average yield of cotton in Kenya is significantly lower than its potential, averaging around 572 kg/hectare of seed cotton, which is only about 23% of the potential yield of recommended varieties. This contrasts sharply with yields in competitor countries like Uganda (325 kg/ha) and China (1535 kg/ha) between 2006 and 2018. National cotton production reached a peak of 38,000 metric tonnes of seed cotton in 1984/1985, declining to 14,000 metric tonnes by 1995. In 2017, annual production was reported at 11,900 metric tonnes. Kenya's annual demand for cotton lint is estimated at 111,000 tonnes of seed cotton, while average annual production between 2005 and 2010 was only about 18,000 tonnes, leading to significant reliance on imports from countries like Tanzania and Uganda.

Risks and Implications

The low yields and inconsistent production pose several risks to the Kenyan cotton sector. Farmers face low profitability due to high input costs (particularly pesticides, which can account for up to 51.70% of input costs), poor quality seeds, and unreliable rainfall. The lack of modern equipment in ginneries leads to low productivity and poor-quality products, making Kenyan cotton less competitive. Furthermore, fluctuating cotton prices and unpredictable market access discourage farmers. The decline of the local textile industry, partly due to competition from cheaper imported textiles and second-hand clothes, has also reduced demand for local cotton.

Unknowns and Controversies

While the government approved Bt cotton in 2019, its full adoption and impact are still being assessed. Concerns have been raised in other countries, such as Burkina Faso, regarding the quality of Bt cotton fibers. The effectiveness of current extension services in translating research outputs to farmers remains a challenge. There are also conflicting reports on the number of operational ginneries in the country.

Timeline and Next Steps

• December 2019: Government approved commercial cultivation of Bt cotton.
• August 2023: Cotton Industry Development Bill, 2023, underwent its First Reading in Parliament.
• Late 2025: A new ginnery spearheaded by Thika Cloth Mills (TCM) is expected to open in Mpeketoni, Lamu County, with support from national and county governments and international donors. This facility aims to serve over 15,000 farmers in Lamu and surrounding counties.

What to Watch

The progress of the Cotton Industry Development Bill, 2023, through Parliament will be crucial in shaping the regulatory and institutional framework of the sector. The operationalisation of new ginneries, such as the one in Mpeketoni, and their impact on local farmer incomes and market access will be key indicators of revival. The effectiveness of Bt cotton in increasing yields and improving quality, as well as the synchronisation of efforts between national and county governments in providing support services, will also be critical to watch.

Related Stories

Kenya's textile and apparel sector, once a major employer, continues to seek revival amidst global competition and the influx of second-hand clothing. Efforts to boost local manufacturing through initiatives like the 'Big Four' agenda underscore the government's commitment to industrial growth and job creation within the cotton value chain.