The value of cotton lint in Kenya reached a five-year high of KSh 572 million in the 2024 crop year, a substantial 70 percent increase from KSh 310 million in 2023. This surge is primarily attributed to a rise in production volumes and more favorable market prices for the commodity, according to disclosures by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA).

The average price of lint in 2024 stood at KSh 250 per kilogram, an increase from KSh 239 per kilogram in the previous year. This price appreciation was largely influenced by international market dynamics of demand and supply. The AFA noted that 2024 marked the highest performance for the cotton sector in the last five years, indicating a clear upward trajectory.

Historical and Political Context

Cotton farming, once a cornerstone of Kenya's agricultural economy, experienced a significant decline after a boom in the early 1980s. The liberalization of the sector in the 1990s, coupled with the withdrawal of government support for credit and inputs, led to a dramatic fall in production. Annual lint production, which peaked at approximately 12,950 metric tonnes in 1984, plummeted to about 3,700 metric tonnes by 1995. This decline left many ginneries operating significantly below capacity.

However, there has been a renewed focus on revitalizing the industry. The government has identified cotton as a strategic crop under Vision 2030 and the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA), aiming to reduce poverty, create jobs, and foster economic development. Initiatives include promoting local production to substitute imports of seed cake and lint.

Laws, Policy, and Governance

The Cotton Development Authority (CODA), established in 2006, plays a crucial role in promoting, coordinating, and regulating Kenya's cotton industry. Its functions include enforcing regulations, promoting production through extension services, strengthening research, and facilitating marketing.

In a significant policy move, the government approved the commercial cultivation of BT cotton in December 2019, a hybrid seed resistant to the destructive African Bollworm. This is expected to boost yields and revitalize textile production. The government has also distributed BT cotton seeds to farmers. Furthermore, there have been efforts to implement price stabilization mechanisms, such as a guaranteed minimum price for seed cotton, to ensure farmers receive consistent baseline prices.

Despite these efforts, a recent policy shift in October 2025 indicated a pause in the government's efforts to revive cotton and sisal production, discarding proposed regulations. This suggests a move towards minimal oversight rather than a dedicated regulatory framework for fibre crops.

Stakeholders and Testimonies

Approximately 40,000 smallholder farmers across 24 counties are involved in cotton cultivation. Key cotton-producing counties include Lamu, Meru, Homa Bay, Siaya, and Busia, which collectively accounted for 73 percent of the total area under production in 2024. Farmers like Wilson Haya and Consolata Anyango from Ol Karia Valley have reported significant increases in yields and earnings through proper training and market access provided by companies like Rift Valley Products.

However, challenges persist, including unscrupulous buyers offering low prices. The government has addressed this by announcing a favorable price of KSh 72 per kilogram for Grade A seed cotton in 2024, motivating more growers.

Evidence and Data

The area under cotton production in Kenya increased by 36 percent in the 2024 crop year, reaching 40,697 acres. This expansion is linked to the national government's import substitution strategy. In 2024, 98 percent of the 6,132,239.30 tonnes of seed cotton produced was classified as Grade A, indicating improved post-harvest management practices.

Despite increased acreage, Kenya's cotton sector faces persistently low yields per hectare, averaging around 572 kg/hectare of seed cotton, which is only about 23 percent of the potential yield for recommended varieties. This contrasts with yields in countries like Uganda (325 kg/ha) and China (1535 kg/ha) between 2006 and 2018.

The country's annual demand for cotton lint is estimated at 111,000 tonnes of seed cotton, while average annual production between 2005 and 2010 was only about 18,000 tonnes, leading to significant reliance on imports. In 2023, Kenya's cotton production stood at 28,000 bales annually, significantly lower than the required 140,000 bales, with 80% of raw materials imported.

Risks and Implications

The low yields and inconsistent production pose risks to farmer profitability due to high input costs, particularly for pesticides, and unreliable rainfall. Outdated technology in ginneries also contributes to low productivity and poor-quality products, making Kenyan cotton less competitive. The collapse of cooperative societies has left many farmers without essential support.

The textile industry, a significant employer and exporter, heavily relies on imported lint due to insufficient local supply. This dependence impacts the country's balance of trade. However, the textile and apparel industry is a key player in Kenya's manufacturing sector, being the leading African exporter of apparel to the US under AGOA, with exports reaching nearly $600 million annually by 2022.

Unknowns and Controversies

While the government has expressed strong policy support for increasing cotton production, the recent policy shift to pause revival efforts and discard new regulations for fibre crops introduces uncertainty about future government intervention and support for the sector.

Timeline and Next Steps

The government has invested KSh 7 billion to build up Rivatex mills and revive the Luanda ginnery in Busia. A KSh 1.2 billion Cotton Ginning and Oil Extraction Factory was launched in Lamu in May 2025, with a capacity to process up to 20 million kilograms of cotton per year. Kirinyaga University is also deploying micro-portable ginning machines to improve farmer incomes by localizing the ginning process.

What to Watch

The effectiveness of government initiatives, particularly the distribution of BT cotton seeds and the establishment of new ginneries, will be crucial in sustaining the current growth trajectory. The impact of the recent policy shift on fibre crops and its implications for long-term sector growth and farmer livelihoods will be important to monitor. Continued efforts to address challenges such as access to quality seeds, affordable credit, and modern ginning technology will determine the industry's future.