Global Climate Summit Opens with Sharp Divisions

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change officially commenced in Belém, Brazil, on Friday, 7 November 2025 (EAT), with deep fractures in the global consensus on climate action immediately apparent. The summit, which runs until 21 November 2025, has been marked by pointed criticism aimed at United States President Donald Trump for his administration's stance on climate science. President Trump, who is not attending the summit, was described as a "liar" by Chilean President Gabriel Boric for his rejection of climate science. Colombian President Gustavo Petro echoed these sentiments, stating that Trump's absence and position go "against the life of all humanity." The leaders of other major emitting nations, including China, India, and Russia, are also absent from the high-level talks.

In a speech delivered on Thursday, 6 November 2025, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged the breakdown of international unity on the issue, stating, "Ten years ago, the world came together in Paris… united in our determination to tackle the climate crisis... Today however, sadly that consensus is gone." This sentiment underscores the challenging political landscape negotiators face as they work towards new climate agreements over the next two weeks.

East Africa's Unified Push for Climate Justice

For Kenya and the wider East African region, the stakes at COP30 are exceptionally high. The region is acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including recurrent droughts and severe flooding. In response, the East African Community (EAC) has been working to present a unified front at the negotiations. In a regional experts meeting held in Entebbe, Uganda, from 28-30 July 2025, EAC Deputy Secretary General Andrea Ariik Malueth stressed the need for a coordinated message to ensure the needs of the community are addressed. The primary focus for the bloc is securing tangible commitments on climate finance, particularly for adaptation and the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund.

Kenya's Ministry of Environment has been vocal about the country's expectations. Dr. Pacifica Ogolla, Director of Climate Change, stated in October 2025 that Kenya plays a critical role in technical and political leadership and "cannot afford to leave Belem without securing the results." Key priorities for the Kenyan delegation include reaching an agreement on indicators to measure progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and ensuring the Loss and Damage Fund provides rapid and direct financial support to vulnerable nations.

Kenya's Ambitious Climate Plan Hinges on International Support

Kenya arrived at COP30 having submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) on 30 April 2025, outlining its climate action plan through 2035. The country, which contributes less than 0.1% of global emissions, has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. However, the plan is heavily contingent on external support. According to the NDC, 80% of this target is conditional on international finance and support through mechanisms like carbon markets. The total estimated cost for implementing the mitigation measures in the NDC for the 2031-2035 period is approximately $22.5 billion (KES 2.8 trillion), with Kenya intending to cover 19% from domestic resources. The adaptation initiatives for the same period are estimated to require an additional $17.7 billion (KES 2.2 trillion).

Focus on Forest Finance and a Just Transition

A central theme of COP30, hosted in the gateway city to the Amazon, is the protection of forests. A major initiative being launched is the 'Tropical Forest Forever Facility' (TFFF), a proposed $125 billion fund to provide long-term financing to countries that successfully conserve their tropical forests. While the fund presents a potential new stream of revenue for forest conservation, its direct applicability to Kenya's key forest ecosystems, such as the Mau and Aberdares, requires further investigation. Civil society groups have raised concerns about the TFFF's design, urging stronger safeguards and a greater focus on the rights and involvement of Indigenous peoples and local communities.

As negotiations unfold, African civil society organizations, which convened in Nairobi in October 2025, are pushing for a common position that prioritizes adaptation finance, a just energy transition, and gender equality in climate action. Their goal is to ensure that the outcomes of COP30 translate into tangible benefits for communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis. The success of the summit for Kenya and East Africa will be measured not by global headlines about political disputes, but by the concrete financial mechanisms and support systems put in place to build a resilient and sustainable future.