The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued an advisory forecasting heavy rainfall in multiple regions from September 30 to October 6, 2025, urging citizens and authorities to prepare for potential flooding, landslides, and transport disruptions.

The Latest

• What happened: Kenya Met released a rainfall advisory on Sept 30 covering Sept 30–Oct 6.

• Regions affected: Highlands East/West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Great Rift Valley, and North-western Kenya.

• Why it matters: The rains could aid water supply and farming but also trigger flash floods, landslides, and travel hazards.

Context in Brief

Kenya’s rainfall patterns play a crucial role in food security, energy production, and livelihoods. With recent deforestation, soil erosion, and climate variability, early October rains can bring both relief and risks. Past seasons have seen destructive flooding in Kisumu, Narok, and Turkana.

Law, Policy, and Process

• Mandate: The Kenya Meteorological Department is mandated under the Meteorology Act to provide timely weather forecasts.

• Disaster Planning: County disaster committees are legally required to prepare response frameworks for such advisories.

• Next Steps: Coordination with NDMA, KWS, and county governments to mitigate flood risks.

Voices and Stakeholders

• Government: “We urge Kenyans to stay vigilant and heed official advisories, especially in flood-prone areas,” Kenya Met Department statement (Sept 30).

• Local leaders: Officials in Kisumu and Turkana urged communities near rivers to relocate temporarily.

• Experts: Analysts noted the rains could aid farmers but warned of heightened landslide risks in highland counties like Murang’a and Nyeri.

Evidence & Data Box

• Forecast period: Sept 30 – Oct 6, 2025

• Regions: Rift Valley (East/West), Lake Victoria Basin, Great Rift Valley, North-western Kenya

• Counties highlighted: Nyeri, Murang’a, Meru, Kericho, Nandi, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Busia, Nakuru, Narok, Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu

• Risks: Flash floods, landslides, infrastructure strain, disruption of agriculture

Risks, Implications, Scenarios

• Short-term: Disruption to farming cycles, fishing, and transport routes.

• Medium-term: Crop losses or delayed planting could raise food prices.

• Long-term: Calls for climate adaptation policies and improved urban drainage.

What We Don’t Know Yet

• Will rainfall intensity exceed long-term averages?

• How well prepared are county disaster units?

• What support will farmers receive if crops are damaged?

Timeline

• Sept 30, 2025: Kenya Met issues advisory.

• Oct 1–6, 2025: Heavy rainfall expected in affected regions.

• Oct 6, 2025: Advisory window ends; Kenya Met expected to update forecast.

What to Watch

• Daily updates from Kenya Met on rainfall intensity.

• Activation of county disaster management plans.

• Reports of flash floods in Rift Valley and Lake Victoria Basin.

Related Coverage

• [KWS pulls out Lake Nakuru Park from Saturday’s free entry offer]

• [Flash floods displace 500 in Kisumu last season]

• [Explainer: Why Kenya’s highlands face recurring landslide risks]

⚠️ Editor’s Note: This story will be updated as Kenya Met issues new advisories.