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Kenyans face a complex weather outlook for the October-December 2025 'short rains' season, with forecasts indicating a mix of below-average rainfall in some regions and near-to-above average in others, alongside warmer-than-usual temperatures across much of the country.
Kenya is preparing for a diverse weather pattern during the crucial October-December (OND) 2025 'short rains' season, a period that typically contributes up to 70% of the annual rainfall in some parts of the country. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) have issued advisories pointing to a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including eastern Kenya and much of Somalia.
Conversely, western Kenya, along with parts of Uganda and Rwanda, is expected to experience wetter than usual conditions. Despite these regional differences, warmer-than-average surface temperatures are anticipated across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with eastern Kenya facing the highest probability of such conditions. Nairobi and nearby counties are also projected to see a gradual rise in temperatures and reduced rainfall.
Kenya is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, ranking 152 out of 181 countries in the 2019 ND-GAIN Index. The country's economy, heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and tourism, is particularly susceptible to extreme weather events. Over 70% of natural disasters in Kenya are attributed to extreme climatic events, with droughts historically having the greatest economic impact, estimated at 8% of GDP every five years.
The nation has experienced a disturbing trend of increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather, transitioning rapidly from prolonged droughts to severe floods in recent years. For instance, the country faced its worst flooding in years in 2024, with some areas receiving 111-200% of their long-term average rainfall, affecting over 100,000 households and causing more than KSh 400 million in damages across coastal regions. This followed a prolonged drought that left over two million people food insecure.
In response to these escalating challenges, the Kenyan government has developed national climate change action plans and is investing in renewable energy and climate adaptation measures. The Kenya Meteorological Department plays a crucial role in providing weather and climate information services for sustainable development, issuing regular advisories and warnings. However, the effective implementation of these policies requires substantial financial resources, robust information systems, and technical capacity.
Dr. David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, has warned that the rapid transition from drought to floods reflects a disturbing trend, emphasizing that Kenya's climate is becoming more unpredictable and extreme. He stressed the need for concerted collective efforts to develop coping strategies. Communities, particularly in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), continue to bear the brunt of these shifts, facing challenges such as water scarcity, food insecurity, and loss of livelihoods.
The anticipated weather patterns pose significant risks. Below-average rainfall in eastern Kenya could exacerbate food insecurity, particularly in regions already prone to drought. Warmer temperatures across the country will further stress water resources and agricultural productivity. Conversely, above-average rainfall in western Kenya carries the risk of flooding, landslides, and associated displacement and damage to infrastructure, as witnessed in previous years.
The potential development of La Niña during the OND 2025 season, with a 60% chance, could lead to prolonged dry spells and isolated storms, further complicating agricultural planning and water management. Coastal communities remain vulnerable to sea-level rise and the potential for increased intensity of coastal storms, which can lead to saltwater intrusion and damage to infrastructure.
While seasonal forecasts provide a general outlook, the precise distribution and intensity of rainfall and temperature anomalies within regions remain subject to short-term variations. The full extent of the impact of a developing La Niña on Kenya's specific microclimates is also an area of ongoing monitoring and analysis. The long-term effectiveness of current adaptation strategies in mitigating the escalating climate risks is a continuous point of evaluation.
The KMD advises residents, farmers, and relevant authorities to closely monitor weather updates and take appropriate measures to manage potential drought and rainfall variability during the OND 2025 season. Rainfall in Central Kenya and Nairobi is expected to begin in the third to fourth week of October 2025, while the Coastal Strip may see rain starting in the third to fourth week of November 2025.
Stakeholders should closely watch the daily and weekly forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department for localized alerts and updates. The performance of the 'short rains' will be critical for agricultural output and food security in the coming months. Furthermore, the government's continued investment in early warning systems and climate-resilient infrastructure will be key indicators of progress in adapting to Kenya's changing climate.
